经济理论与经济管理
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中国人民大学宏观经济分析与预测课题组
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摘要: 人口红利消失、资本边际报酬下降和对外开放带来的技术赶超空间收窄,导致我国潜在产出增速持续下滑。我国需要从模仿赶超阶段向自主创新阶段转型,提升潜在增长率。推动新旧动能转换的重要力量是新一轮结构性改革,尤其是供给侧结构性改革。这次改革需要再次调整市场与政府的关系,将以技术模仿为动力的赶超型模式转变为促进前沿创新的经济治理模式。同时,为了创造稳定的改革环境,需要在长短期平衡中考虑短期政策,短期政策的选择需要考虑未来改革的需要。
关键词: 新动能 , 潜在增长率 , 技术进步
Abstract: The demographic dividend is disappearing, the marginal return of capital is declining and the technical catchup space brought about by the opening to the outside world is narrowing, which lead to a continued decline in Chinas potential output growth rate China needs to shift from imitation to independent innovation stage to upgrade the potential growth rate The important force to promote the conversion of new and old economic momentum is a new round of structural reforms, especially the supply side structural reforms This reform needs to adjust the relationship between the market and the government again, and transforms the technical imitationdriven model to the innovationbased economic governance model.
Key words: new economic momentum , potential economic growth rate , technological progress
中国人民大学宏观经济分析与预测课题组. 全球技术进步放缓下中国经济新动能的构建*[J]. 经济理论与经济管理.
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http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2016/V36/I12/5