年龄—收入模式对中国居民消费率的影响

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 24-37.

年龄—收入模式对中国居民消费率的影响

胡羽珊1,王亚华2

1美国波士顿学院经济系，美国波士顿02467-3809；2清华大学公共管理学院，北京100084

收稿日期:2014-09-15 出版日期:2014-10-16 发布日期:2014-10-29
作者简介:胡羽珊（1990—），女，山东临沂人，美国波士顿学院经济系博士研究生；王亚华（1976—），男，河南周口人，清华大学公共管理学院教授，国情研究所副所长，管理学博士。

THE IMPACT OF THE AGEINCOME MODE TO
CHINESE RESIDENT CONSUMPTION RATE

HU Yu-Shan-1,WANG Ya-Hua-2

1Department of Economics, Boston College, MA 024673809, USA;
2School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2014-09-15 Online:2014-10-16 Published:2014-10-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 改革开放以来，我国居民消费率呈现总体偏低且持续下降的趋势，居民消费率的影响因素成为学界关注的热点问题。不同于发达国家通常的年龄—收入驼峰型模式，我国在转型期出现了收入随年龄的增高而持续递增的独特模式。本文构建数理模型论证得出我国独特的年龄—收入模式对于城镇居民消费率的影响方向取决于健康寿命与总寿命的比值，认为该模式可能降低了居民平均消费倾向和居民消费率。定量测算表明，1995—2011年间我国独特的年龄—收入模式对于城镇居民平均消费倾向和居民消费率的影响分别约为16%~17%和2%~3%。

关键词: 年龄—收入模式 , 居民消费率 , 居民平均消费倾向

Abstract: The consumption rate in China has been low and has shown a sustained decline since 1978, the influential factors of residents consumption rate have become a hot topic in academic circlesThis study is aimed at exploring the intrinsic link between the declining consumption rate and the unique ageincome structure which appears in the transition period in ChinaThis paper uses mathematical models to discuss the effect of the unique ageincome mode in China towards the urban resident average propensity to consume, and proves that the effect of positive or negative depends on the ratio of healthy life time over the whole life time, and this propensity may reduce Chinese household consumption rateIn addition, this paper uses the data from 1995 to 2011 to find that the negative impact of this unique ageincome mode on urban resident average propensity to consume and household consumption rate is around 16%~17% and 2%~3% respectively

Key words: ageincome model , resident consumption rate , resident average propensity to consume

胡羽珊1,王亚华2. 年龄—收入模式对中国居民消费率的影响[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2014, 34(10): 24-37.

HU Yu-Shan-1,WANG Ya-Hua-2. THE IMPACT OF THE AGEINCOME MODE TO
CHINESE RESIDENT CONSUMPTION RATE[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2014, 34(10): 24-37.