Table of Content

16 January 2020, Volume 40 Issue 1

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CHINA'S STRATEGIC CHOICE WHEN WORLDS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND ORDER ENTERING FISSION PERIOD

LIU Yuanchun,LIU Xiaoguang,ZOU Jingxian

2020, 40(1):  10-20. 

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This paper finds that the current world economic structure and order is undergoing a fission rather than a simple differentiation. In the future, China will face the

external environment of large structure fission, small structure confusion and local conflict aggravation. On the one hand, the speed of global economic growth and technological innovation has slowed down, and the dividend of globalization has gradually subsided. On the other hand, the trend of economic differentiation among countries has become increasingly evident. The deepseated structural problems such as worsening income distribution, aging population, debt accumulation and asset price bubbles have not been solved or even deteriorated, and populism and trade protectionism have been stimulated. At present, the existing international governance structure tends to be paralyzed, while the new bilateral system has not yet been constructed. There is a risk that global governance will fall into a “vacuum” state. In the next few years, we should be alert to the possibility of some extreme situations.

CHINA'S MACROECONOMIC REPORT 2019—2020——China's Macroeconomy in the Period of Structural Adjustment

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2020, 40(1):  21-41. 

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In 2019, under the influence of multiple factors such as the aggravation of SinoUS. trade conflict, the simultaneous decline of the world economy, the continuous fermentation of domestic structural factors and the increase of cyclical downward force, Chinas macroeconomy bid farewell to the platform period of “stable and slowing down” in 2016—2018 with the increased decline of economic growth and the obvious economic structural differentiation. 2020 is China's fairly welloff year in an allround way. China's macroeconomy will change significantly on the basis of continuing the basic operation mode in 2019, so it is not necessary to be too pessimistic. On the one hand, the downward trend force and structural force in 2019 will continue to work, which will further reduce the potential GDP growth in 2020; on the other hand, many downward cyclical forces in 2019 will begin to change their directions in 2020, which will ease the macroeconomic downward trend and the downward range will be significantly narrower than that in 2019. The reversal of some cyclical forces and the continuous improvement of China's institutional dividend will be the most noteworthy and expected new changes in 2020.

SHORT SALE CONSTRAINT AND MARKET EFFICIENCY——Evidences from the Quasi Natural Experiment of Margin Financing Loan in Chinese Stock Market

ZHU Guangwei1,JIANG Jiarong2,LU Dong3

2020, 40(1):  42-54. 

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 This paper studies the impact of short selling on the stock price discovery from the aspect of short sale constraints. Constraints reflect the impact of short selling

in a more comprehensive way than the volume of transactions. Because the constraints affect the market not only by affecting the trading volume directly, but also through the information channel and improving the quality of firms' financial reports indirectly. We find as follows: First, after the short constraint decreases, the stock price has more common trend when market return is negative, which means stock price contains less idiosyncratic information. Second, the price adjustment speed becomes faster. Third, the stock price is closer to a random walk, which means the predictability of stock price decreases. The policy implications of this paper are that appropriate reduction of short constraints, expansion of institutional investors, maintaining a higher threshold for short sales, and strengthening investor education can promote the positive role of the short selling mechanism.

SPATIAL STRATEGY INTERACTION OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURES BEHAVIOR——Transmission Mechanism and Reexaminations

CAO Hongjie1,LU Hongyou1,PAN Xingyu2

2020, 40(1):  55-68. 

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This paper examines the transmission mechanism of spatial strategy interaction of environmental expenditure behavior of local governments from both theoretical and empirical dimensions. The results show that there exists obvious spatial strategy interaction and time lag effect in environmental expenditure, which is reflected in the mutual imitation and path dependence of environmental fiscal expenditure between adjacent provincial regions. Foreign direct investment and fiscal decentralization are not the direct reasons for “race to the bottom” of regional environmental expenditure. While building a multidimensional performance appraisal system to guide the competition of government financial expenditure, it is conducive to China's balanced and green development by establishing a coordination mechanism of regional environmental expenditure and opening up to the outside world.

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, MANAGERIAL OPTIMISM AND BANK RISKTAKING

WANG Lu1,ZHANG Yingchun1,YU Lixia2

2020, 40(1):  69-81. 

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Based on the bounded rationality of behavioral finance theory, this paper puts managerial optimism into the relationship between economic uncertainty and bank

risktaking from the perspective of behavioral finance. Using the quarterly data of Chinese commercial Banks from 2008 to 2017, this paper examines the relationship between economic uncertainty, managerial optimism and bank risktaking through the twostage regression of intermediary effect. The results of the study showed as follows: The increasing of economic uncertainty can restrain the psychological deviation of managerial optimism. Managerial optimism will increase the risk of Banks. In the process of the impact of economic uncertainty on bank risktaking, at least in part by “intermediary channel of managerial optimism”, and the intermediary effect of managerial optimism is manifested as the “masking effect”. Further research shows that market discipline plays a moderating role in the relationship between economic uncertainty and bank risktaking, and the moderating effect is at least partly mediated through the managerial optimism channel.

UNIVERSITIES KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVER AND FIRMS INNOVATION EFFECT

LIANG Junwei1,HUANG Decheng2

2020, 40(1):  82-96. 

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This paper explored the effect of universities, as the micro main bodies of innovation and knowledge spillover, on firms innovation based on the full sample. We measured the number of all types of universities around the listed companies from 2007 to 2015 by ArcGIS and the innovation level by RD input and invention patents. Using Knowledge Production Function of Anselin et al. (2000), we tested the effect and mechanism of universities spillover on firms innovation through double cluster OLS. We concluded as follows: First, universities notably improved the innovation input and output of firms. Second, geographical characterized the spillover effect more than administrative linkage. Third, knowledge spillover makes effect on innovation through RD, employee and management human capital. Further research implied that spatial difference, university heterogeneity and firms characteristics, agglomeration effect of center cities, high speed railways will affect the level of knowledge spill over from universities.

TWOSIDED MARKET, INCOMPLETE INFORMATION AND SECONDDEGREE PRICE DISCRIMINATION

DONG Xuebing1,ZHAO Chuanyu2,YE Bing2

2020, 40(1):  97-112. 

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This paper studies the seconddegree price discrimination in twosided market. This paper presents a twostage game including the advertiser, the consumer and the monopolistic platform, in which the platform's firstbest pricing schedule and secondbest pricing schedule are determined. This paper presents the distortion of the platform profit and the social welfare caused by the incomplete information and price discrimination. We find as follows: First, some distortions do not exist. Second, the type of the consumer on the program quality and the advertising level may reverse. Third, the second degree price discrimination will increase the social welfare while decrease the consumer welfare. Fourth, the membership system is one of the platform's dominant strategies.