This paper finds that the current world economic structure and order is undergoing a fission rather than a simple differentiation. In the future, China will face the

external environment of large structure fission, small structure confusion and local conflict aggravation. On the one hand, the speed of global economic growth and technological innovation has slowed down, and the dividend of globalization has gradually subsided. On the other hand, the trend of economic differentiation among countries has become increasingly evident. The deepseated structural problems such as worsening income distribution, aging population, debt accumulation and asset price bubbles have not been solved or even deteriorated, and populism and trade protectionism have been stimulated. At present, the existing international governance structure tends to be paralyzed, while the new bilateral system has not yet been constructed. There is a risk that global governance will fall into a “vacuum” state. In the next few years, we should be alert to the possibility of some extreme situations.

world economy , fission period , technology cycle , trade friction

本文认为当前世界经济结构与秩序正在经历一场裂变而非简单的分化，未来中国将面临大结构裂变、小结构混乱、局部冲突加剧的外部环境。一方面，全球经济增长及技术创新速度放缓，全球化红利逐渐消退；另一方面，国家间经济分化的趋势愈加明显，收入分配恶化、人口老龄化、债务积累和资产泡沫等深层次结构问题不仅没有得到解决，甚至有所恶化，民粹主义和贸易保护主义由此得以激发。当前，现有的国际治理结构趋于瘫痪，而新的双边体系尚未构建，全球治理有陷入“真空”状态的风险，未来几年应警惕一些极端情况出现的可能性。