Table of Content

16 October 2018, Volume 38 Issue 10

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TRADE OPENNESS, POPULATION SIZE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SIZE IN CHINA: MEDIATION OR COMPENSATION

CHEN Taiming

2018, 38(10):  5-20. 

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This paper uses a panel that contains data for Chinas 29 provinces covering the 36year period 1978—2013, and examines the mediation or compensation relationship between trade openness, population size and local government size. The estimates indicate openness is significant positive association with local government size, population size is ambiguous association with local government size, and population size is significant positive association with openness. Moreover, estimation of several instrumental variables strategies provides an overwhelming support for a positive causality from openness to local government size. Therefore, the increase in openness leads to an increase in Chinas local government size through compensation transmission, and it seems unlikely that positive association between openness and local government size arises due to the mediating role of population size. With the establishment of “One Belt and One Road”, the local government size needs to further expand properly in the Chinese peoples livelihood field.

INCOME DISTRIBUTION, DEMAND REGIMES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH——An Empirical Analysis Based on the MarxKeynesKalecki Model#br#

赵峰1,陈宝林1,章永辉1,季雷2

2018, 38(10):  21-29. 

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This paper analyzes the longterm effects of the change of labor share in China on consumption, investment, net export, total demand and economic increase. According to the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2015, this paper tries to verify MKK theory simultaneously. The results show as follows. First, the demand regime in China is wageled. But with the consideration of net export, the total demand is mainly led by profit. Second, the increase of labor share has apparent positive effects on consumption and negative ones on net export, while its influence on investment is not significant. Third, the cause of such phenomena is the countercyclical investment and nonprofitoriented investment is dominated substantially by our government and SOEs. As the reform of SOE deepening and the proportion of nongovernment investment increasing, the domestic demand of our country has the trend of becoming more profitled. When it comes to the regional disparity, we discover that the demand of the coastal regions tends to be led more by profit, which may be correlative with the higher proportion that private economics takes up in those areas.

FINANCIAL VERTICAL IMBALANCE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

CHU Deyin,SHAO Jiao

2018, 38(10):  30-43. 

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Deepening the fiscal and taxation system reform and releasing the system dividend is the key to boosting local economic growth and the improvement of peoples livelihood. This paper first systematically interprets the mechanism of the vertical imbalance of finance on economic growth, and then constructs the dynamic panel simultaneous equation model to integrate the vertical fiscal imbalance, public expenditure structure and economic growth into the analytical framework, and empirically explores the impact of vertical financial imbalance on local economic growth, and then through further standardized regression estimates to examine the role of fiscal vertical imbalances in economic growth channels and transmission effects. The study finds that fiscal vertical imbalance not only significantly reduces economic growth through direct channels of action, but also indirectly exerts a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth through the role of local government public expenditure structure.

SPATIOTEMPORAL COUPLING AND REGULATION PATTERN OF LAND INTENSIVE USE AND URBANIZATION DEVELOPMENT

ZHANG Hongfeng,QU Yanbo

2018, 38(10):  44-54. 

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This paper analyzes the level grade of provincial urbanization development and land intensive use change, synchronization state and coordination relations from 2005 to 2015 based on attribute connection and spatial analysis functions of GIS. The research shows as follows. First, the provincial comprehensive urbanization level is rising steadily and its dynamic changes are in convergence in 2005—2015. Meanwhile，the whole level of land intensive utilization is declined, there are big differences between provinces in 2005—2015. Second, in general, the provincial urbanization degree are in advance of land intensive use level in 2005—2015，the spatial distribution of synchronous state between urbanization and land intensive use is not balanced，and synchronous characters are remained unchanged in most provinces in 2005—2015. Third, the coupling relationship between urbanization development and land intensive use change is shown as positive coordination，which also has a certain spatial clustering and regionaltimeliness difference in 2005—2015. Fourth, the degradation of land use in eastern provinces is worthy of attention and vigilance. But the process of urbanization in some western provinces still needs to be moderately accelerated, while to strengthen the substitute and complementary effects of capital and technology.

MOMENTUM AND THE TACTICAL VALUE OF COMMODITY IN ASSET ALLOCATION——Based on BlackLitterman Model

TAN Huaqing1,2ZHAO Xuejun1,HUANG Yili3

2018, 38(10):  55-70. 

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This paper investigates the tactical value of commodity in asset allocation. Using the data from 1973 to 2016, we propose a new method by applying the basic idea of momentum into the BlackLitterman model. The out of sample allocation performance shows that adding the S&P GSCI commodity index can improve the traditional equity and bond portfolio in return. And under some ranking periods, Sharpe ratio will also be improved. In addition, comparing with other popular allocation method, the new methods based on momentum and BlackLitterman model do a better job. Such findings are robust to the transaction cost.

CONFUCIAN TRADITIONAL CULTURE AND CORPORATE FRAUD——Analysis Based on Familyowned Listed Companies in China

CHENG Bo1,XIONG Ting1,LIN Minhua2

2018, 38(10):  72-86. 

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This paper discusses the informal institution as an important component part of the Confucian traditional culture of the influence of corporate fraud. Using the data of familyowned listed companies in China from 2007 to 2014, examines the Confucian traditional cultures influence on corporate fraud and the interaction with formal institutions (legal). The results show that the stronger the Confucian traditional culture influence, the lower the incidence of corporate fraud, and the Confucian traditional culture and formal institutions when the superposition of the interaction of the two lower incidence of corporate fraud.

AN INVESTIGATION ON ENERGY POLICY PREFERENCE OF THE PUBLIC AND THE GOVERNMENT POLICY ORIENTATION OF CHINA——Research Based on Questionnaire Survey#br#

FANG Xingming,ZHANG Yan,YANG Jinying,WEI Jing

2018, 38(10):  87-101. 

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Since the problem of energy concerns the national safety and the vital interests of the public, this paper made a questionnaire survey on the energy policy preference of the public of China. Based on the data of the survey, this paper concludes as follows. The most interviewees have some energy knowledge but do not understand national energy conditions enough. Their attitude to energy and electricity problem is relatively rational. The public has a strong awareness of environmental protection, support the development of renewable energy and is willing to bear some cost for it. Furthermore, the most of the interviewees support the development of nuclear power. The key problem of concerns is the relationship between energy use and the environmental protection.

CHOOSING ENERGY INPUTOUTPUT MODELS: HYBRID TYPE OR MONETARY TYPE

ZHANG Hongxia

2018, 38(10):  102-112. 

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In literature, there are two ways to apply inputoutput technique to analyzing problems related to energies, the hybrid type energy inputoutput model and the

monetary type energy inputoutput model. In this paper, the features and differences of two types of energy inputoutput models are studied and proved from the viewpoint of energy balance equations. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, when the matrix of technology coefficients is stable, the hybrid type energy inputoutput model still satisfies the energy balance equations, and keeps consistency under the impact of new final demands. Secondly, for the monetary type energy inputoutput model, if the matrix of technology coefficients and the matrix of energy prices keep stable, the monetary inputoutput equations are satisfied, and the energy consumptions are the results of adjusting monetary inputoutput equations by the matrix of energy prices, when there is a vector of new final demands. It means that although the energy balance equations are used in the process of constructing a monetary type energy inputoutput model, its fundamental starting point is not the energy balance equations, but the monetary inputoutput equations. Therefore, a monetary type energy inputoutput model does not take energy balance equations into consideration, and does not consider whether the energy balance equations are

still satisfied when a vector of new final demands comes out and whether the energy consumptions are consistent. In this sense, a hybrid unit energy inputoutput model is more reasonable than a monetary type energy inputoutput model. Thirdly, it is proved that in some special cases, the monetary type energy inputoutput model is equivalent to the hybrid unit energy inputoutput model. The arguments provide guidelines for choosing a proper model when using energy inputoutput technique.