Table of Content

16 August 2018, Volume 38 Issue 8

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CHINAS MACROECONOMY UNDER STRUCTURAL DELEVERAGING——Chinas Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in 2018 Interim Report

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2018, 38(8):  5-19. 

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Since 2018, Chinas economy has been operating smoothly, prices have been stable, the overall employment situation has improved, and the quality of economic growth has steadily increased However, Chinas economy still faces downward pressure In particular, it needs to be alert to several major risks, such as rapid decline in consumption growth, increase in macro tax burden, deceleration of private investment growth, deteriorating performance of some companies, and increasing instability of the financial system during the process of deleveraging In addition, the high leverage ratio of China is a prominent problem at the current stage, and the leverage ratio shows obvious structural characteristics among different departments and within each department Under this circumstance, the central government proposed a new thought of “structural deleveraging” in 2018 The macroeconomic policies should not only respond to the unexpected downward pressure caused by structural deleveraging, but also stimulate the endogenous growth drivers of the economy, so as to realize longterm sustainable development and highquality development

INSTITUTIONAL DIFFERENCES, “THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE” AND CHINAS LARGESCALE OUTWARD FOREIGN INVESTMENT——Based on a Perspective of Investment Margins, Modes and Failure

SHEN Kunrong,JIN Gang

2018, 38(8):  20-33. 

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Based on the 2440 largescale foreign investment samples of 609 enterprises in China from 2005 to 2016, this paper examines the impact of formal and informal institutional difference on the outward foreign investment margins, modes and performance The results show as follows Formal institutional difference has little influence on the scale of investment, but it has a significant impact on the diversification of investment In order to avoid the management risk brought by formal institutional difference, enterprises prefer to choose full ownership structure However, whether enterprises choose greenfield investment or crossborder mergers and acquisitions is not affected by formal institutional difference In contrast, the impact of informal institutional difference is more extensive Both formal and informal institutional difference will significantly increase the probability of failure of outward foreign investment This paper also finds that “the Belt and Road Initiative” can mitigate the risks brought by formal institutional difference The conclusion shows that it is necessary to deepen “the Belt and Road Initiative”, especially to develop the cultural exchanges with the countries along the Belt and Road, to help enterprises to go outward faster and better

THE INFORMATION DIFFERENCE, TRANSACTION COST AND TRAIN TICKET MARKET DISTORTION——Analysis on Transaction Cost of Ticket Scalping

HUANG Shaoan1,YAN Xiaoying2

2018, 38(8):  34-50. 

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This paper considers the imbalance of supply and demand is not the basic cause of the ticket scalping phenomenon We demonstrate the relationship between transaction cost and arbitrage behavior with a dynamic game model Based on the comparison of consumers transaction cost, the supply increase or price discrimination could not control the ticket scalping phenomenon effectively and it could harm the lowincome consumers welfare The primary cause of the longterm persistence of the “scalpers” is the incomplete information and distorted resources allocation This paper provides an empirical analysis with the data from 2002 to 2016, which confirms the conclusion of the game model In general, it is the most effective way to deal with the inefficiency of resource allocation in the markets of such products that reducing the gap of consumers transaction costs

COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN MARXISM AND POSTKEYNESIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORY——Starting from the Basic Equations of Economic Growth

WANG Kun1,YAN Wei2

2018, 38(8):  51-61. 

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From the beginning of setting the basic equations of economic growth, this paper explored the different thoughts on the construction of closed growth model between Marxism economics and Keynesian economics to compare the two kinds of growth theory in detail It found out that both Marxism and PostKeynesian economic growth theory give special attention to income distribution, and they also insist on the same analysis methods such as class analysis, system analysis and disequilibrium analysis However, there are still distinct differences between the two kinds of growth theory on the aspects of theoretical basis, the fundamental determinants of economic growth, the existence of growth limit in capitalist economy and the market structure in the process of growth Compared to the PostKeynesian economic growth theory, Marxism has the advantage on theoretical basis, research vision and internal logic consistency The comprehensive comparison of Marxism and PostKeynesian economic growth theory can provide significant reference for the construction of Development economics with Chinese characteristics

THE IMPACT OF FUND MANAGER CHANGES ON THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS FROM DIFFERENT CAREER PATH#br#

ZHANG Na1,YANG Jiajia2,TIAN Shu3

2018, 38(8):  62-74. 

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This paper analyzes all mutual fund manager changes during 2003 to 2013 in China by using events study method and panel regressions We find that manager changes can improve the fund performance in the medium term, and this result is robust in both stock market boom and recession situations There is a significantly positive effect of manager changes on fund performance when the historical fund performance is below the market When the historical fund performance is above the market, there is no significant effect of manager changes on fund performance Regarding the manager career path, this study suggests that previous fund managing experience can improve managers ability New managers with previous fund managing experience are able to improve fund performance significantly while those without previous experience cant Last, the previous fund managing experience from the same mutual fund company can bring the improvement quicker than outside fund managing experience

DIFFERENT REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE RESIDENTIAL HOUSING PRICES—— The Evidence from 31 Provinces in China#br#

WANG Tianyu

2018, 38(8):  75-90. 

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The development and evolution of the real estate market in China has a close relationship with the trend of macroeconomy Due to the different levels of economic development in various regions of China, there exist a variety of characteristics of economic operation Therefore, the dynamic relationships between the residential housing prices and regional macroeconomy, in addition to the responses to the monetary policy are significantly different The empirical analysis with 31 provincial macro data shows that the “spiral feedback loop” is consisted of every regional residential housing prices tendency by VAR/PVAR model and statistical method According to the “spiral feedback loop”, all provinces can be divided into four categories respectively: monetary policy leading, economic growth leading, mixed leading and real estate leading model

THE CHOICE OF THE FIRMS ENTRY STRATEGIES IN THE BACKGROUND OF THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY STANDARD

YANG Hairui,PI Jiancai

2018, 38(8):  91-102. 

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In the background of trade globalization, as corporate social responsibility (CSR) comes back into fashion around the world, the firms need to choose suitable entry strategies when the standard of CSR is taken as a measure of trade barrier Our analysis finds that whether the firms in the market with low standard of CSR accept higher standard of CSR is determined by the entry cost of the new market When the entry cost is relatively low, both firms are willing to accept higher standard of CSR When the entry cost is relatively high, both firms will not accept higher standard of CSR When the entry cost is moderate, one firm will accept higher standard of CSR, and the other firm will not accept higher standard of CSR As far as social welfare is concerned, we find that when both or one of the two firms choose entry, accepting higher standard of CSR will increase both the profits of the firms and social welfare

DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND REGIONAL OUTPUT VOLATILITY

ZHOU Shiyu

2018, 38(8):  103-112. 

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The paper investigates the effects in terms of discretionary fiscal policy of local government on economic growth and output volatility First, we analyze the

mechanism of discretionary fiscal policy based on local soft budget and promotion incentives Then we extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy and use 2000—2013 interprovincial panel data for empirical test This paper finds that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts economic growth, but aggravates output volatility However, the discretionary fiscal policy has the timelag effect and its negative effects are mainly produced two years after it was implemented In order to make discretionary fiscal policy play a better role, Chinese public fiscal system should be improved