Table of Content

16 February 2018, Volume 38 Issue 2

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NEW NORMAL TOWARDS NEW STAGE ——Chinas Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in 2017—2018

Renmin University of China

2018, 38(2):  20-38. 

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Due to the positive effects of global recovery, stimulus policies, supplyside structural reform, rising of new economy and improvements in market expectation, Chinas macro economy managed to achieve bettering in economic performances both at macro and micro level, presenting an upward trend of “steady progress towards good”. However, it must be clear that the rebound observed in 2017 was mainly driven by stimulus policies and recovery forces, while not solid in market and trend power, indicating that China is still far away from the track of “new cycle”. There are three major characteristics for understanding Chinas current macroeconomics as follows: First, economy has steadied but hard to rebound quickly. Second, risks have been alleviated but far from disappearing. Third, economic structure has improved but still facing the challenge of policy exits.


THE EFFECT OF SHADOW BANKINGS SCALE CHANGE ON FINANCIAL ASSET PRICES

FANG Xian-ming,QUAN Wei

2018, 38(2):  39-50. 

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On the one hand, the development of shadow banking can improve the efficiency of resource allocation in financial market. On the other hand, plenty of money flows into the shadow banking system, triggering the turbulence of financial asset prices. Based on the constructed TVPVAR model, this paper examines the spillover effects of the scale change of shadow banking on financial asset prices, using the data from January 2006 to November 2016. The result shows that the increase of the shadow banking has positive impact on the Libor, the real estate price, the stock market yield and the RMB real exchange rate index. The structural change of the economic system leads to the timevarying nature of the impact of shadow bankings scale change on financial asset prices. Because the information transmission takes time, the spillover effect of shadow bankings scale change has time lag. To this end, we should regulate and guide the development of shadow banking to play its role in allocating financial resources. At the same time, we should improve the efficiency of resource allocation and promote the healthy development of the real economy.

FINANCIAL SUPERVISION TO FINTECH AND MARKET EFFICIENCY——The Evidence from P2P Industry in China

CHENG Hua,JV Bin

2018, 38(2):  51-63. 

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The fintech in China experienced a process from a period of rapid innovation and development to a period of strict regulation. Through an empirical study of P2P industry in China, this paper analyzed the influence of financial supervision to online lending industry on market efficiency. Our study showed that some compulsory measures were specified by regulatory authority. For example P2P platform must deposit the fund in bank and apply ICP license, and ease the information asymmetry among investors, platform and lenders, which were helpful to overcome the lemon market problem and to supply the effective signals. Therefore, it improved the market efficiency in online lending industry.

STUDY ON MITIGATION MECHANISM OF INFORMATION ASYMMETRY PROBLEM IN P2P LENDING——Based on Signaling Transmission and Bilateral Reputation

ZHANG Xiao-mei1，LIANG Hong1，LU Lu2

2018, 38(2):  64-80. 

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This present paper is directed toward the mitigation mechanism of information asymmetry problem in P2P lending from the perspective of signaling transmission and bilateral reputation on the basis of“Renrendai” data. The empirical results show that the mechanism of education signal and bilateral reputation of P2P lending can help alleviate the degree of information asymmetry, improve the efficiency of financial services, promote the rational allocation of resources and reduce the moral hazard after financing. There is an asymmetric alternative relationship between borrowers credit signaling and bilateral reputation. The high reputation effect for the loweducated borrower is relatively higher. Therefore the loweducated borrower is more inclined to build his own high reputation to make up for inadequacy of credibility signaling. However, with the enhancement of borrowers education, the asymmetric effect disappears. The further study found there is a big regional difference in the case of easing the information asymmetry problem. This paper provides a new way to release the financing plight for the long tail crowds. 


FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, INVESTMENT EXPANSION MODE AND THE CAPITAL RETURN OF CHINA

YANG Jun1，HUANG Xian-hai2，XIAO Ming-yue3

2018, 38(2):  81-97. 

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This paper analyzes the impact of financial development on capital return in theory, and makes an empirical verification using the data of China provinces. The main conclusions are as follows: The capital return of China was relatively stable before 2008, after which there has been a significant decline, and the trend of regional convergence is obvious. Underdevelopment and overdevelopment of Chinas financial exist at the same time, and its impact on capital return are different in three regions, there is a “financial failure” phenomenon in the area of high investment expansion coefficient, a “financial curse” phenomenon in the area of low investment expansion coefficient, and a “structural imbalance” phenomenon in the area of middle investment expansion coefficient. Government intervention exacerbates the negative impact of financial development, but this effect is weakening. Capital accumulation does not contribute to technological progress，which is the reason of that capital stock has the negative effect on capital return. The laborintensive technological progress not only promoted the improvement of capital return, but also extends the period of investmentdriven growth. Technological progress is an important driving force for capital return of China.


STOCK LIQUIDITYS ENHANCEMENT ON FIRM INNOVATION

YAN Hong-lei1，ZHAO Sheng-min2

2018, 38(2):  98-112. 

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In this paper, we use the transaction data and financial report data of Ashare listed companies and control the heterogeneity of enterprises through multiple matching methods to analyze the influence of stock liquidity on enterprise innovation. Empirical result shows that enterprise with good stock liquidity is more innovative. Margin trading enhances stock liquidity but does not affect enterprise innovation activities thus providing ideal quasinatural experiment. Improvement of stock liquidity enhances firm innovation. We identify two possible mechanisms through which liquidity enhances innovation. The first is liquidity helps alleviate financing constraints and raise fund for R&D. The second is attracting higher presence of mutual funds that actively monitor and improves efficiency of R&D. This paper provides empirical evidence to promote enterprise innovation through development of capital market.