Abstract: China is facing a variety of shocks， such as geopolitical conflicts and trade unilateralism led by the United States， and the uncertainty in the economy is gradually rising and the expectations of economic agents are weakening Given the subjective nature of economic expectations， gradually rising uncertainty， especially economic policy uncertainty， is likely to lead economic agents to form distorted and confusing expectations of the economy， which will reduce the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies On the one hand， monetary policy is an important part of the steady growth relay of Chinas macroeconomic policy at present， and its regulatory effect is vulnerable to the uncertainty and the pressure of weakening expectations And on the other， in the process of monetary policy transmission to the real economy， commercial banks play a key role in liquidity rationing， so liquidity regulation will undoubtedly have a nonnegligible impact on monetary policy
This paper not only introduces multiple frictions in the product and labor markets in the NKDSGE model， but also focuses on portraying the behavior of financial intermediaries， based on which it introduces liquidity regulation shocks to commercial banks， and examines the impact of liquidity regulation on the effects of monetary policy as well as macroeconomic fluctuations In addition， little empirical evidence has been provided in the literature on expected monetary policy shocks through theoretical modelling， this paper uses the text of the Peoples Bank of Chinas Monetary Execution Report to construct a central bank communication index， while using commercial bank data to construct a liquidity regulation index， and empirically studies the impact of central bank communication， a form of expectation management， and liquidity regulation on the macroeconomy through the SVAR model， as well as analyzing the central banks monetary policy response to expectation management and liquidity regulation
It is found that：Firstly， recording to the estimated results based on SVAR model， monetary policy anticipation shocks can stimulate output growth and investment growth and trigger an accommodative monetary policy response from the central bank， whereas liquidity regulation has the effect of promoting investment and output growth but fettering liquidity expansion in the commercial banking system As regard to the numerical simulation of DSGE model， secondly， guiding economic agents to form expectations of monetary policy， which is conducive to the full realization of the regulatory function of monetary policy， and thirdly， liquidity regulation reduces the risk of commercial banks， is conducive to maintaining the health of the financial system， and has the effect of stimulating aggregate demand and stabilizing economic growth， but as liquidity regulation imposes constraints on the liquidity of the banking system， it will weaken the effect of monetary policy to a certain extent
The findings of this paper have implications for strengthening monetary policy expectation management and promoting synergy between monetary policy and liquidity regulation

Key words: monetary policy, economic expectations, central bank communication, liquidity regulation

摘要： 面对逐渐升高的经济不确定性和预期转弱压力，通过强化预期管理来提升货币政策有效性变得更加重要，同时考虑到流动性监管对货币政策具有重要影响，本文从实证和理论角度探讨货币政策预期管理的宏观经济效应，并兼顾考察流动性监管对货币政策和宏观经济的影响。SVAR模型的经验证据表明，货币政策预期冲击表现为正向需求冲击，刺激宏观经济的同时引起货币政策的扩张性响应，流动性监管冲击具有相似的效果。进一步构建NKDSGE模型，在模型中引入货币政策预期和流动性监管，利用我国宏观经济数据和贝叶斯方法估计该模型，研究发现：引入预期可以提升货币政策的调控效果，但当前我国货币政策中未预期到的成分仍较多；流动性监管能较好地防范流动性风险，稳定宏观经济，但监管带来的流动性约束会在一定程度上削弱宽松货币政策的刺激效果。本文的结论对加强货币政策预期管理、推动货币政策与流动性监管协同发力具有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词: 货币政策, 经济预期, 央行沟通, 流动性监管