Abstract: Based on countylevel panel statistics, using dynamic variable space tools and Spatial Durbin Model, this paper evaluates the incentive effect of equilibrium transfer payment from the perspective of local governments' income behavior. The results show that the equilibrium transfer payment has two effects on local governments' income behavior. From the direct effect, it alleviates the fiscal pressure of local governments and does not cause direct tax distortion on local governments. However, it can be seen from the indirect effect that the equilibrium transfer payment will lead to distorted tax competition among regions. Its tax base effect and tax rate effect offset each other, its impact on local governments' tax collecting efforts is not significant, and its impact on local governments' fiscal revenue behavior is neutral and not positive in terms of incentive effect.

Key words: equilibrium transfer payments, incentive effect, local government income behavior, Spatial Durbin Model

摘要： 本文基于全国县级面板数据，采用动态空间工具变量模型和空间杜宾模型，从地方政府收入行为视角对均衡性转移支付的激励效应进行评估。结果表明：均衡性转移支付对地方政府收入行为具有双重作用。在直接效应方面，其在一定程度上缓解了地方政府的财政压力，且不会对地方政府造成直接税收扭曲影响。但在间接效应方面，均衡性转移支付会引致地区间扭曲的税收竞争。其产生的税基效应和税率效应相互抵消，对地方政府的征税努力的影响不显著，对地方政府的财政收入行为呈现中性影响，并未产生正向激励效应。

关键词: 均衡性转移支付, 激励效应, 地方政府收入行为, 空间杜宾模型