Abstract: In the face of China's manufacturing share a rapid decline since 2006，the “14th FiveYear Plan” clearly put forward to maintain the stability of the share of manufacturing industry，while building a modernized industrial system must accelerate the implementation of the innovationdriven development strategy，to achieve a high level of scientific and technological selfreliance and selfimprovement To this end，to maintain the stability of the share of manufacturing，and innovationdriven together must be adhered to at the same time However，according to Baumols theory of unbalanced growth，technological progress will lead to an increase in the share of the service industry and a decrease in the proportion of the manufacturing industry，which makes Chinas adherence to the innovation drive and maintaining the stability of the share of the manufacturing industry face a theoretical paradox For this reason，this paper，based on the real needs in Chinas socialist modernization，tries to provide explanations and empirical verification for breaking the theoretical paradox of technological progress and maintaining the stability of the share of manufacturing industry at the same time
This paper compared the conditions of Baumol cost disease，based on the fact that the total factor productivity growth rate of the service industry has been higher than the total factor productivity growth rate of the manufacturing industry，and pointed out that there is an antiBaumol cost disease phenomenon in China，that is，there is a Baumol cost disease in the field of manufacturing We revised the Baumol theoretical model and found the root cause of the decline in the share of manufacturing industry in China from the perspective of technological progress We conclude that only by accelerating the technical progress of the manufacturing industry and technological transformation to improve the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry can realize the share of the manufacturing industry unchanged This puts forward a logically consistent theoretical explanation for the simultaneous realization of innovationdriven development and maintaining stability of the share of manufacturing industry
The paper's empirical study using data from 17 manufacturing industries in the WIOD database from 20002014 finds that higher TFP growth rates can significantly increase the manufacturing share Controlling for the effects of other variables，every 1% increase in manufacturing TFP growth rate will increase the manufacturing share by 17% before 2011，and 056% higher after 2011 than before Heterogeneity analysis of hightech manufacturing and lowtech manufacturing further supports this conclusion One percent increase in the TFP growth rate of hightech manufacturing would increase the share of manufacturing by 23 percent，while an increase in the TFP growth rate of lowtech manufacturing would lead to only 135 percent increase The mechanism that affects the change in the share of manufacturing is that an increase in the level of TFP will improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing，and is empirically tested based on the relative comparative advantage of value added （RCA_VAX）

Key words: technological progess, total factor productivity, Baumol's cost disease, antiBaumols cost disease, share of manufacturing industry

摘要： 根据鲍莫尔的非均衡增长理论，技术进步会导致服务业占比上升，制造业占比下降，这就使得我国既要坚持创新驱动，又要保持制造业占比基本稳定面临理论上的悖论。本文立足我国服务业全要素生产率增速已经高于制造业全要素生产率增速的新变化，指出我国存在着反鲍莫尔成本病现象，即制造业领域而不是服务业领域存在鲍莫尔成本病，这修正了鲍莫尔理论模型，从技术进步角度找到了我国制造业占比下降的根本原因，为创新驱动和保持制造业占比基本稳定同步实现提出了逻辑一致的理论解释。此外，论文借助WIOD数据库2000—2014年17个制造业细分行业数据进行实证研究，结果显示，2011年起制造业TFP增速每提高1%，制造业占比将提高23%，TFP水平提升会增强制造业国际竞争力。

关键词: 技术进步, 全要素生产率, 鲍莫尔成本病, 反鲍莫尔成本病, 制造业占比