Abstract: From the “14th FiveYear Plan” period to 2035， the negative growth of the labor force and the increase in the elderly population in China will overlap From the perspective of residents income distribution， it is of great practical significance to study how much impact the overlap of the negative growth of the labor force and the total increase in the elderly population will have on residents income and what optimization strategies should be adopted
Based on the real background of the negative growth of the labor force and the increase of the elderly population，a general equilibrium overlapping generations model that is adapted to the negative growth of the labor force and the accelerated growth of the elderly population is extracted Through equilibrium analysis and numerical simulation for quantitative analysis， the impact of the negative growth of the labor force and the accelerated growth of the elderly population on the growth of residents income is expounded theoretically In terms of development strategies， based on the basic principles of maintaining the growth of residents income without reduction and intergenerational sharing of high income， from the two perspectives of adjusting the pension contribution rate and delaying the retirement age， the corresponding strategies for maintaining the level of residents income without reduction and stabilizing the growth expectations of residents income are proposed and tested 
The research findings are as follows： Simulating the future changes in the quantity of the labor force and the elderly population based on various scenario prediction parameters， the results show that in the future， the superposition of the negative growth of the labor force and the total growth of the elderly population will jointly act on pensions and wage incomes This demographic transition will lead to different degrees of slowdown in the growth of residents pensions and wage incomes In the long run， the reduction in labor income will affect peoples work enthusiasm Moreover， if labor income continues to decline， it may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market On the other hand， the increase in pension income may pose a challenge to the sustainability of the social security system If the growth rate of pension income exceeds that of contribution income， it may lead to increased pressure on the social security fund， further affecting the stable operation of the economy and hindering income growth By choosing combinations of basic oldage insurance and enterprise annuity contribution rates and paths such as gradually and elastically delaying the retirement age， it is possible to deal with the impact of changes in population quantity on the growth of residents incomes

Key words: negative labor force growth, increasing elderly population, growth of residents income, policy choice

摘要： “十四五”时期到2035年，中国劳动力负增长和老年人口增长叠加，其对居民收入会产生什么影响以及政策回应，尚需深入研究。本文依据劳动力负增长和老年人口增长的现实背景，同时考虑代际之间的动态联系，提炼出与劳动力负增长和老年人口加速增长相适应的一般均衡世代交叠模型，并通过数值模拟展开定量分析，探讨劳动力负增长和老年人口加速增长对居民收入增长的影响与政策选择。研究发现：基于各种情景预测参数模拟未来劳动力和老年人口数量变化，结果显示未来劳动力负增长和老年人口总量增长叠加将共同作用于养老金和工资收入，这一人口转变导致居民养老金和工资收入出现不同程度的增长减缓。通过选择基本养老保险与企业年金缴费率的组合以及渐进式弹性延迟退休年龄等路径，可以应对人口数量变动对居民收入增长的冲击，保证居民收入不降低、稳定居民收入增长预期。

关键词: 劳动力负增长, 老年人口增长, 居民收入增长, 政策选择