Abstract: 2023 is a year when the impact of the epidemic subsides and the economic order returns to normal The core task of Chinas economy is to achieve macroeconomic recovery growth and deep restoration of micro foundations，and then return to the track of expansionary growth Unlike previous economic cycles，after three years of epidemic control，this round of Chinas economic recovery needs to go through three different stages：social order and transaction repair stage，balance sheet repair stage，and normalization expansion stage Moreover，there may be obstacles in the transition of stages At present，Chinas economic recovery is in a critical period of transition from the first stage to the second stage This is not only a period of restorative growth in Chinas economic recovery，but also a period of concentrated outbreaks of various potential risks and contradictions This report analyzes and predicts the macroeconomic trend of China in 2023，evaluates the outstanding difficulties and risk challenges faced during the recovery process，and proposes relevant policy recommendations based on this

Key words: China's economy, macroeconomic regulation, economic recovery, risks and challenges, growth forecast

摘要： 2023年是疫情影响消退与经济秩序归位的一年。中国经济的核心任务是实现宏观经济恢复性增长和微观基础深度修复，进而重返扩张性增长轨道。不同于以往经济周期，在经历了三年疫情管控后，本轮中国经济复苏需要经历社会秩序与交易修复、资产负债表修复、常态化扩展三个不同阶段，而且在阶段转换上也可能会遭遇阻碍。当前中国经济复苏正处于从第一阶段向第二阶段转换的关键期，这既是中国经济复苏的恢复性增长期，也是各种潜在风险显化和矛盾的集中爆发期。本文对2023年中国宏观经济走势进行了分析与预测，对复苏过程中面临的突出困难和风险挑战进行了研判，并据此提出了相关政策建议。

关键词: 中国经济, 宏观调控, 经济复苏, 风险挑战, 增长预测