Abstract: Human capital matched with industrial demand is the driving force of economic growth，and analyzing the supply and demand of engineers helps talent policies serve economic development needs more precisely Based on the definition of engineers，this paper measures and analyzes the total scale and current characteristics of engineers in China using data from the China Household Finance Survey，and estimates the future supply gap of engineers based on economic and industrial development goals This paper finds that the scale of engineers in China is large and growing fast，exceeding other major economies，but its proportion in labor force is low Although the overall scale of graduates with higher education in science and technology has increased，there are problems such as low proportion in labor force and declining proportion in graduates，as well as low proportion of engineering and technical jobs after graduation Chinas manufacturing value added ratio in GDP is steadily the highest in the world，but the ratio of manufacturing engineer is much lower than that of traditional engineer powerhouses At present，there is an insufficient supply of junior，middle and senior engineers in the labor market，and the demand for engineers will still greatly exceed the supply in the future，and the supply gap of engineers will exist for a long time The increase in the proportion of science and engineering graduates and the conversion rate of engineers helps to expand the supply scale of engineers and narrow the gap between supply and demand This paper provides empirical evidence for the adjustment of talent policies such as the training program for scientific and technical talents and the professional title system for engineers

Key words: engineers, engineering and technical staff, industrial structure upgrading, future supply and demand for engineers, talent policies

摘要： 与产业需求匹配的人力资本是经济增长的动力，分析工程师供需情况有助于人才政策更精准地服务经济和社会发展需求。本文在对工程师进行界定的基础上，采用中国家庭金融调查数据测算和分析我国工程师规模总量与现状特征，并根据经济发展目标与产业调整需求，估算工程师未来供给缺口。研究发现，我国工程师规模大，增长快，但占劳动力比重偏低；新增理工科毕业生规模可观，但占适龄人口比重偏低，并且理工科毕业生从事工程技术类职业的意愿下降；我国制造业增加值占GDP比重稳居全球首位，但制造业工程师比重远低于传统工程师强国。目前工程师劳动力市场中，初、中、高级工程师均出现供不应求，而未来工程师需求仍将大幅超过供给，工程师供给缺口将长期存在。提高青年就读理工科意愿和理工类毕业生从事理工类职业的意愿有助于扩大工程师供给规模，缩小供需缺口。本文研究为理工类人才培养计划和工程师职称制度等人才政策调整提供经验证据。

关键词: 工程师, 产业结构升级, 工程师未来供需, 人才政策