Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 106-112.
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Abstract: Over the past six decades,Warren Buffetts investment strategy has significantly outperformed S&P 500 Index,which attracted a lot of investors attention in the market to track and follow his strategy From the modern finance theory,this paper gives insights into Buffetts investing principles of emphasizing fundamental analysis and maintaining a concentrated portfolio Using the rational expectation model,this paper reveals the central role of future firm fundamentals in stock pricing When adding a bubble term to the model,the stock price has the same solution Therefore,investors should rationally see price fluctuations originating from the bubble process Moreover,this paper explains the philosophy of concentrated portfolio choice with Mertons optimal investing strategy In addition,this paper shows the implications of these insights for the asset management industry in China
Key words:  , Buffett;price expectation;stock bubble;firm fundamentals;concentrated portfolio
摘要: 在过去近六十年的时间里,巴菲特的投资业绩大大超过了标普500指数,引得广大投资者纷纷追随并效仿其投资策略。本文从现代金融理论出发,为巴菲特在实践中所坚持的“注重基本面分析”和“集中投资”法则提供了学术注解。首先,本文利用价格理性预期模型,揭示了关注未来公司基本面信息在股票定价中的核心地位。在模型中引入泡沫项后,股价随机过程的同源性启示投资者应理性看待由泡沫过程引起的价格剧烈波动。其次,本文通过引入方差更小的基本面变量,阐释了巴菲特何以应用莫顿最优解来集中持股。最后,本文还探讨了以上理论对促进我国资产管理行业长足发展的政策启示。
关键词: 巴菲特, 价格预期, 股价泡沫, 基本面变量, 集中投资
LIU Zhenya. ON WARREN BUFFETT'S INVESTMENT STRATEGY[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2023, 43(6): 106-112.
刘振亚. 论巴菲特的投资策略[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2023, 43(6): 106-112.
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http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I6/106