Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (10): 17-31.
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Abstract: Based on the signs of rapid and premature deindustrialization of China's labor employment structure,this paper studies it from the perspective of intersectoral productivity gap using multisectoral general equilibrium model,numerical simulation and econometric empirical analysis methods and obtains the following conclusions(1) Theoretically,when the growth of labor productivity in service sector is slower than that in industrial sector,the intersectoral productivity gap will increase,and the rate of labor deindustrialization will be fasterMoreover,the existence of intersectoral productivity gap makes labor deindustrialization have a structural deceleration effect on economic growthWith the accelerated improvement of labor productivity in the service sector,the intersectoral productivity gap will be narrowed,so as to slow down the rate of deindustrialization and reduce the pressure of structural decelerationAlthough the improvement of labor productivity in the industrial sector will expand the intersectoral productivity gap and accelerate the deindustrialization of labor force,it will play a role in homogenizing the economic growth rate in the long run(2) Using the econometric empirical analysis of China's provincial level and citylevel panel data from 20012018,it is found that the existence of intersectoral productivity gap leads to the significant effect of labor deindustrialization,but the structural deceleration effect of labor deindustrialization on economic growth is only significant in the sample interval from 2009 to 2018This shows that the slowdown of China's economic growth in recent years is related to the intersectoral productivity gap and labor deindustrialization(3) The experience comparison between successful and failed countries also shows that the improvement and coordination of labor productivity in industrial and service sectors is the key to cross the middleincome trap and achieve sustainable catchup after crossing
Key words: inter-sectoral productivity gap, labor deindustrialization, structural slowdown
摘要: 基于中国劳动力就业结构出现过快和过早去工业化的迹象,本文从部门间生产率差距的视角,利用多部门一般均衡模型、数值模拟和计量实证分析方法研究发现:(1)理论上,当服务业劳动生产率增长慢于工业,部门间生产率差距将扩大,导致劳动力去工业化速率加快;且部门间生产率差距的存在使得劳动力去工业化对经济增长产生结构性减速效应。服务业部门生产率加快提升,部门间生产率差距将会缩小,从而减缓去工业化速率和降低结构性减速压力;工业部门生产率提升尽管会扩大部门间生产率差距从而加快劳动力去工业化,但在长期中起到均匀化经济增长速率的作用。(2)利用2001—2018年中国省级和城市级面板数据的计量实证分析发现,部门间生产率差距的存在导致劳动力去工业化的效应在全时段样本下显著,但劳动力去工业化对经济增长的结构性减速效应仅在2009—2018年区间样本下显著,表明近年来中国经济增长减速与部门间生产率差距及其导致的劳动力去工业化相关。(3)赶超成功与失败国家的经验比较也表明,工业与服务业部门劳动生产率的改善与协调是跨越中等收入陷阱以及跨越后实现持续赶超的关键。
关键词: 部门间生产率差距, 劳动力去工业化, 结构性减速
WANG Xiyuan, YANG Xianming. INTER-SECTORAL PRODUCTIVITY GAP.LABO RDEINDUSTRIALIZATION AND STRUCTURAL SLOWDOWN[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2022, 42(10): 17-31.
王希元, 杨先明. 部门间生产率差距、劳动力去工业化与结构性减速[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2022, 42(10): 17-31.
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http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I10/17