Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of investmentled industrial policy on rural human capital. A cohort differenceindifferences (cohortDID) identification strategy is utilized based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2018). The results find that since 2008, local governments investmentled industrial policy has resulted in largescale investment in traditional infrastructure. This policy significantly reduced the possibility of rural schoolaged youth to complete high school education. The conclusion remains robust when instrument variable (IV) method is applied. Additionally, this study attempts to explore the mechanism of the above effects. On the one hand, investmentled industrial policy has induced an increasing growth in traditional infrastructure investment. Blooming opportunities for lowskilled jobs in the construction industry and other related industries enhanced the opportunity cost of achieving high school degree. On the other hand, an increase in lowskilled jobs caused the convergence of wages of labors with different education levels as well as the declining of the skill premiums in wages, which further lowered expected returns to high school investment. The conclusion of this paper has reference value for China to comprehensively integrate industrial policy that matching innovationled economic development model in the future 14th FiveYear Plan period.

Key words: industrial policy, fixed asset investment, rural human capital

摘要： 基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）2018年数据与笔者收集的数据，本文采用跨地区和出生队列的变异构造双重差分模型（CohortDID）分析了地方政府投资驱动型产业政策对农村人力资本积累的影响。研究发现，2008年之后地方政府投资驱动型产业政策引致的大规模传统基础设施投资与农村适龄青年完成高中教育的可能性之间存在显著负相关关系。使用工具变量的检验结果表明，上述研究结论具有较强的稳健性。此外，本文还尝试性地探究了上述效应的作用机制：投资驱动型产业政策引致的传统基础设施投资大幅攀升，一方面增加了建筑业及相关低技能工作的机会，提升了投资教育的机会成本；另一方面带来了低技能劳动力工资的提升，导致了不同教育水平劳动力工资趋同、技能溢价下跌，降低了预期教育回报。本文的研究结论可以为“十四五”时期中国全面构建与创新驱动型经济发展模式相匹配的产业政策体系提供参考。

关键词: 产业政策, 固定资产投资, 农村人力资本