Abstract: This paper considers the reform and openingup policy as a quasinatural experiment, and firstly uses the synthetic control method to examine the performance effect of the reform and openingup policy on Chinas economic growth. The paper finds that the synthetic control method simulates the situation before the reform and openingup policy through weighting many control objects. The synthetic control method can evaluate the performance effect of the reform and openingup policy more scientifically than traditional approaches. The result shows that the reform and openingup policy has accelerated Chinas economic growth rate by 669 percentage points every year on average since 1978. The placebo test, rank test and DID estimation method prove the validity and robustness of the above results. The mechanism to accelerate Chinas growth of the reform and openingup policy is the increasing physical capital investment and international trade rather than the inadequate human capital. This paper firstly quantitatively supports the popular opinion of the reform and openingup policy creating Chinas economic growth miracle, and also supplies the vital historical quantitative basis and empirical evidence to the future promotion of reform and openingup.

Key words:  , reform and openingup, economic growth, synthetic control method

摘要： 本文基于1978年末中国实施改革开放的准自然实验，首次使用合成控制法定量评估改革开放对中国经济增长的影响效应。结果显示，合成控制法通过对多个控制对象加权以模拟中国改革开放政策执行前后的情形，比传统方法更科学地测度改革开放的政策效果。改革开放的增长效应使中国1978年以来的年均经济增长率提高669个百分点。经由安慰剂检验、排序检验和双重差分法的多维定量结果客观证实了上述结论的有效性和稳健性。进一步的机制分析表明，固定资产投资和对外贸易的持续快速增长是改革开放促进中国经济高速增长的重要渠道，人力资本水平没有发挥明显的作用。本文首次从定量意义上佐证了改革开放创造中国经济增长奇迹的学术观点，也为中国坚定不移地推进改革开放提供了定量依据和经验支持。

关键词: 改革开放, 经济增长, 合成控制法