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GAO Minxue,LI Yukun,LI Jingping
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高敏雪,黎煜坤,李静萍
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Abstract: In the perspective of coupling and decoupling, this paper uses the GDP elasticity of freight volume to assess the link between China s freight transport and economic growth and finds that their link in 19882016 has undergone an evolution from Decoupling (19881998), to Tending to Coupling (19992003), to Coupling (20042013), then to Decoupling Sign (20142016)In order to explore the mechanism of the link, this paper summarizes the influencing factors from the supply and demand framework of freight transport and economy and then constructs the SVAR model to test the theoryThe empirical analysis indicates that the increasing share of the industry in the economic production and the improvement of transportation infrastructure have a significant positive effect on the GDP elasticity of freight volumeWith the continuous largescale construction of Chinas transportation industry, the impact of transportation infrastructure factors on the GDP elasticity of freight volume has been weakened, but the impact of evolution of industrial structure on the GDP elasticity of freight volume has become increasingly prominentThis paper argues that Chinas transportation system should support and lead the highquality development of the economy and its development model has reached an important node from focusing on scale and speed to focusing on quality and efficiency
Key words: freight volume and economic growth , coupling , decoupling , GDP elasticity of freight volume , SVAR
摘要: 本文在耦合与解耦视角下,根据货运经济弹性对中国货物运输和经济增长关系进行了系统研究,发现1988—2016年间二者之间关系经历了非耦合(1988—1998年)——趋于耦合(1999—2003年)——耦合(2004—2013年)——解耦迹象(2014年以来)的演化过程。为探索二者关系演化的机理,本文从货物与经济的供求框架出发,归纳出影响二者关系的主要因素,并构建SVAR模型进行检验。实证结果表明,第二产业占比和交通基础设施水平对货运经济弹性存在显著的正向作用;在经历了持续大规模建设之后,交通基础设施因素对货运经济弹性的影响作用不断减弱,产业结构变化的影响不断凸显。本文认为:为支撑和引领经济高质量发展,中国交通运输系统已经到了从“规模速度型”向“质量效率型”转型发展的重要节点。
关键词: 货物运输与经济增长 , 耦合 , 解耦 , 货运经济弹性 , SVAR
GAO Minxue,LI Yukun,LI Jingping. THE LINK BETWEEN CHINAS FREIGHT VOLUME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF COUPLING AND DECOUPLING[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management.
高敏雪,黎煜坤,李静萍. 耦合与解耦视角下中国货物运输与经济增长的关系研究*[J]. 经济理论与经济管理.
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URL: http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/
http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2019/V39/I5/75