Economic Theory and Business Management

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TFP MEASUREMENTS OF CHINA ECONOMY AND ITS INDUSTRIAL SECTORS:BASED ON RBC MODEL

LIU Wei1,2 ZHANG Liyuan1   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Peking University; 2. School of Economics, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2018-09-19 Published:2018-09-16

资源配置、产业结构与全要素生产率:基于真实经济周期模型的分析*

刘伟2,张立元1   

  1. 1  北京大学;        2    中国人民大学

Abstract:

The paper aims at measuring and analyzing the level of and annual average growth rate of total productivity factor (TFP) of China economy and its three major industrial sectors, the level of supererogation and rationalization of industrial structure. With required data of 37 other countries, this paper implements an international comparison. This paper applies a basic RBC model to derive the TFP measurement equation and proposes two indices to quantify the level of supererogation and of rationalization of industrial structure. This paper finds that the differences in level of TFP among industrial sectors, largescale transfer of human capital between the sectors and structural benefits could reasonably explain two seemingly contradictory economic facts that Chinas economy has been experienced a high annual average growth rate of TFP while its industrial sectors have not. This paper uses mathematical and empirical methods and confirms the existence of the effect of output growth rate and of structural benefits. This paper also shows that both of the level of
supererogation and of rationalization of industrial structure of China economy are much lower than those of almost all of the highincome countries with an international comparison.

Key words: industrial structure , RBC model , human capital , TFP measurement

摘要:

本文旨在测算、分析中国经济及各产业部门的全要素生产率和年均增长率、产业结构高度及其合理化程度,再结合其他37个国家的相应数据进行国际比较。本文依据真实经济周期模型推导出全要素生产率的测算方程并构建了测算产业结构高度及其合理化程度的两个指标。本文发现,由三大产业部门全要素生产率水平之间的差异和部门间规模巨大的人力资本转移而形成的“结构效益”,能够合理解释中国经济整体全要素生产率年均增长率较高但三大产业部门却处在较低水平甚至负增长这两个看似矛盾的经济事实。本文从数理逻辑和经验研究两个角度验证了“产出增长率效应”和“结构效益”的存在。本文通过国际比较发现,中国经济产业结构高度及其合理化程度大幅落后于多数高收入国家。

关键词: 产业结构 , 真实经济周期模型 , 人力资本 , 全要素生产率测算