Economic Theory and Business Management

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EFFECTS ON CHINAS FOREIGN TRADE OF ESTABLISHMENT OF TPP

WANG Xiao-song,HE Xin-yue   

  1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2016-03-18 Published:2016-03-16

TPP达成对中国贸易发展的影响探究

王孝松,何欣悦   

  1. 中国人民大学经济学院
  • 基金资助:

    本文为中国人民大学科学研究基金（中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助） “中国企业对外直接投资行为研究——跨越贸易壁垒动机重要吗？”（13XNI006）的阶段性成果。

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Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of establishment of TPP on Chinas foreign trade, based on a series of statistical indicators and CGE simulation. By observing trade development between China and TPP members, we find a decreasing interdependent trade relationship between China and these partners. Based on results of CGE simulation, we find a minor effect of TPP without China on Chinese trade volume, output and national welfare. But textile and apparel industry will face a drastic output decreasing by TPP, while export of transportation equipment, iron and metal products will decrease significantly. In order to promote trade development and maintain the power in Eastern Asia, China ought to join TPP in the future.

Key words: TPP , trade volume , competition and complementation , trade rules , China US interaction

摘要：

本文基于历史发展和预测模拟来探究跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)达成可能对中国对外贸易发展产生的影响。通过考察2000年至2014年间TPP成员同中国之间的贸易发展状况，本文发现近年来中国对TPP成员的贸易依赖程度逐渐降低，但在TPP内部削减关税的情况下，中国向部分TPP成员的出口在一定程度上可能会受到其他成员的挤压。根据可计算一般均衡（CGE）模拟的结果，短期内中国不加入TPP对其贸易额、产出和国民福利的影响都是微小的，只有纺织品和服装行业产出下降较为明显，而运输设备、钢铁、金属制品等行业出口受到较大抑制。TPP成员目前仍是中国不可或缺的贸易伙伴，无论是从贸易发展的角度，还是从提升国际地位和维护自身在亚太地区影响力的角度，中国最终都应考虑加入TPP。
 

关键词: TPP , 贸易流量 , 竞争与互补 , 贸易规则 , 中美博弈