This paper investigates the effect of economic target set by the government on economic growth and fluctuation in China. We collected the economic target from two conferences of central government and local government in each year. We found that the growth target was set based on previous growth, and impacting growth of that year. This means that the economic target may enlarge economic fluctuation. The relatively stable target in recent years, however, decreased economic fluctuation. We also found that the channel of the effect is mainly from government policy. That is, government implementedcorresponding policies to ensure the target realized. Some policy suggestions are also discussed.

预期往往是经济波动的重要推动力量。本文以中国政府“两会”报告中提到的经济增长目标作为引导社会预期的重要导向，观察这个经济计划对实际经济的影响。笔者发现，政府增长目标基于

过去的实现增长，同时又显著影响本年实现增长。这个结果对全国“两会”效应和地方“两会”效应都存在。这意味着政府设定目标有可能起到了推动经济波动的结果。整体上说，近年相对稳定的经济

增长目标显著降低了经济波动的可能性。本文检验发现，政府目标对实际增长的影响主要是政府的政策发挥作用，但预期效应不明显。一些政策意见在本文的结尾被提出讨论。