Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 44-55.
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CHU De-Yin,LI Shan-Da
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储德银,李善达
作者简介:
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY016);博士后基金项目(2012M520022);安徽省自然科学基金面上项目
Abstract: Based on endogenous classification method in fiscal adjustment period,this paper used smooth transition regression models to study implementation mechanisms and dynamic characteristics of fiscal policy in 1980—2012It came to the following conclusions:Firstly,the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy changed through consumption channel and influenced the consumer expectationsSecondly,the combinations of noKeynesian effect of fiscal policy under different conditions and the fiscal policy tools were certain differencesWhen the primary budget surplus/GDP was less than the critical value of -0045 0,fiscal revenue had nonKeynesian effects on consumer demandOn the contrary,when the primary budget surplus/GDP was greater than the critical value of -0045 0,fiscal expenditure on consumer demand had nonKeynesian effects to some extentIn addition,the governments initial sizes of the debt and the magnitude of the fiscal adjustments were not important factors to the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy in our countryThis paper provided the theoretical basis and decision reference for the government,and improved operational efficiency and operational effectiveness of fiscal policy in China
Key words: fiscal policy , non-linear effects , STR models , implementation mechanisms , dynamic characteristics
摘要: 本文基于财政调整时期的内生划分方法,采用STR模型对于我国1980-2012年间财政政策非线性效应的实现机制与动态特征进行实证分析,结果发现:一是我国财政政策非线性效应主要是经由消费渠道发生,而且是通过影响消费者预期产生。二是财政政策非凯恩斯效应在不同条件下与财政政策工具之间的搭配组合存在一定差异。其中,当基本预算余额/潜在GDP小于临界值-0045 0时,财政收入对居民消费需求存在非凯恩斯效应;反之,财政支出表现出一定程度的非凯恩斯效应。三是财政政策调整的幅度是居民消费需求非凯恩斯效应产生的重要因素,但财政政策调整的组成成分与政府的初始债务规模不是非凯恩斯效应产生的先决条件。本文研究结论不仅可以为政府制定财政政策提供理论依据与决策参考,还有助于改善我国财政政策实践的操作效率和运行效果。
关键词: 财政政策 , 非线性效应 , STR模型 , 实现机制 , 动态特征
CHU De-Yin,LI Shan-Da. RESEARCH ON IMPLEMENTATION MECHANISMS AND DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF FISCAL POLICY WITH NONLINEAR EFFECTS[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2014, 34(12): 44-55.
储德银,李善达. 我国财政政策非线性效应的 实现机制及动态特征研究[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2014, 34(12): 44-55.
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http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2014/V34/I12/44