Abstract: This paper analyzed their interaction mechanism in the perspective of labor costs, real interest rates and exchange rates. Through farmers grainsaving behavior, firm investment promotion, exchange rate transmission mechanism, inflation had an effect on agricultural product price level. Under the conditions of the Lewis turning point, the rising agricultural product price level led to the general price level going up through the channel of rising labor cost, and the influence degree grew continuously. To test the above hypotheses, the paper applied an empirical research with VAR models. Finally, the paper provided a series of policy implications on inflation management in macrocontrol system.

Key words: agricultural product price , financial repression , labor cost , inflation , VAR model

摘要： 本文从金融市场的实际汇率、真实利率水平和劳动力市场的农业劳动力成本等角度分析二者之间的互动机制，认为通货膨胀通过农民的存粮行为、投资的促进、汇率传导三种机制影响农产品价格水平；而在刘易斯转折点出现的条件下，农产品价格通过劳动力成本的上升这一渠道导致一般物价水平上升，并且影响程度持续上升。本文对这些假说进行了理论分析后使用VAR模型进行经验研究，提出需求面的因素是价格水平变化的主要原因，供给面的因素是农产品价格变化的主要原因。应减少金融市场的扭曲程度，提升真实利率和人民币币值以抑制通货膨胀；在供给方面应改进农业的投入和生产模式，把劳动力成本上升和技术进步结合在一起，同时利用国际农产品市场稳定国内价格水平。

关键词: 农产品价格 , 金融抑制 , 劳动力成本 , 通货膨胀 , VAR模型