Abstract: In Schumpeters opinion, innovation was the only cause of the economy prosperity Based on Schumpeters innovation model and reviewing the longwave theory, this paper analyzed the historical data of technological innovation and economy growth in UK and found the inside logic of technology innovation and economic growth By analyzing the data from 1988 to 2010 in China, this paper concluded that China was in a period of innovation boom and potential growth rate recession, which indicated an upswing in Chinas economy in next 5 to 10 years due to the positive effect of innovation boom Besides large R&D input, deepening of economic system reform was also the key to increase the potential growth rate.

Key words: long-wave theory , innovation , business cycle

摘要： 在熊彼特看来，创新是经济繁荣的唯一原因。本文通过对英国技术创新和经济增长历史数据的分析，发现技术创新与经济增长之间有相互决定、相互影响的关系。按照这一发现，通过研究中国目前的经济增长和技术创新情况，本文认为，中国目前正处在创新高涨、潜在增长率下滑的阶段，虽然经济增速在短期内会放缓，但技术创新在未来5～10年内对经济会有拉升作用。除了加大研发投入，中国提高潜在增长率的关键是加快经济体制改革，为创新营造良好的环境，增强市场配置资源的作用。

关键词: 长波理论 , 创新 , 经济周期