Abstract: In post-financial crisis era, the overseas investments of Chinese enterprises had stepped into a great stage with broad development prospects However, the enormous political risks were threatening the overseas investments Due to its tremendous impacts, potential huge damage and losses and wide aspects affects, political risks were affecting China´s economic development and even national security Regrettably, Chinese multinational enterprises were lack of knowledge and experience of political risks, and had little prevention tools and management strategies and measures Therefore, it was utmost important and urgent for multinational enterprises to analyze the political risks in the targeted host country Domestic scholar had a plenty of research on political risks, but mostly on qualitative analysis This paper summarized the types of the political risks which could be encountered by Chinese enterprises, introduced a theoretical model which could help Chinese enterprises to assess and quantify the host country´s political risks Furthermore, this paper applied a trend analytical method to fully reflect the modern characteristics of the political risks, and effectively and accurately predict political risks of host country。

Key words: foreign investment, political risk, political risk assessment

摘要： 后金融危机时代，中国企业的对外投资也正处于一个新的发展阶段，在拥有广泛发展前景的同时也面临着巨大的政治风险，由于政治风险影响力大、辐射面广、破坏力强，已严重影响我国海外投资的安全和利益，同时也影响着我国的经济发展和国家安全。然而，我国企业海外投资无论从历史还是经验看，往往对政治风险认识不足，也缺乏防范工具和防范策略。因此，中国企业对外投资如何对东道国政治风险进行界定、分析和评估，显得愈加重要和迫切。虽然国内学者已就政治风险分析评估做了大量研究，但主要以定性分析为主。本文盘点了我国企业遭遇的政治风险种类，并通过引入理论模型对东道国的政治风险进行量化分析，有助于我国企业对世界各国政治风险的量化评估；在此基础上结合趋势分析法充分反映现代政治风险的特性，有效预测东道国政治风险。

关键词: 对外投资 , 政治风险 , 政治风险评估