Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 74-81.
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ZHOU Shuang-1, LIU Peng-2
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周双1, 刘鹏2
作者简介:
Abstract: This paper examined the inflation effect of foreign exchange reserve increase and the effectiveness of monetary sterilization in China. A VAR model was employed to detect the dynamic effects of the foreign exchange reserve increase and the monetary sterilization on inflation and the level of social outputs. The results showed that the monetary sterilization could affiliate the inflation effect raised by the foreign exchange reserve increase, and the effect lasted for about 8 months,while it had a positive effect on the gross output. Finally, some implications were drawn from the test results.
Key words: foreign exchange reserve , monetary sterilization , inflation, VAR
摘要: 为研究中国外汇储备增加的宏观经济影响和货币冲销政策的有效性,本文利用2002年6月—2011年5月的数据,通过建立VAR模型,对外汇储备增加和货币冲销政策对物价水平以及社会产出水平的动态影响进行考察。研究结果表明,我国的外汇储备增加具有明显的通货膨胀效应,而央行的货币冲销政策对物价水平具有显著的平抑作用,同时对社会产出却没有不利影响。最后,本文从实证结果得到几点重要启示。
关键词: 外汇储备 , 货币冲销 , 通货膨胀 , VAR
ZHOU Shuang-1, LIU Peng-2. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, MONETARY STERILIZATION AND SOCIAL OUTPUT——Empirical Study Based on VAR[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2012, 31(10): 74-81.
周双1, 刘鹏2. 外汇储备增长的宏观经济影响 及货币冲销政策的有效性研究[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2012, 31(10): 74-81.
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