Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 12-24.
Previous Articles Next Articles
LIU Zhen-Ya-1, DENG Lei-2
Received:
Online:
Published:
刘振亚1, 邓磊2
作者简介:
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790050)
Abstract: This paper focused on high dimensional economic variables that were subject to regime switching and put forward a new model: largedimensional regimeswitching factor model (LD-RS-FM). Based on a twostep analysis, principal component analysis and autoregressive analysis, the model proposed here was capable of capturing important macroeconomic features, such as comovements and structural changes, with a very small number of representative common factors. Therefore, these factors could be used for purpose of regime switching analysis. Additionally, there were also some structural meanings underlying these factors. Conclusions suggested that LD-RS-FM was a powerful tool for the study the business cycle features of Chinese macroeconomy.
Key words: business cycle , factor model , regime switching , PCA
摘要: 本文利用高维机制转换因子模型(LDRSFM)研究大规模经济数据的机制转换特征和经济的周期性特征。借助主成分分析(PCA)和共同因子自回归的二步分析方法,LDRSFM从大规模变量中提炼出维数较小并可以概括经济周期运动的共同因子,在此基础上进行机制转换分析。这些共同因子代表了大部分宏观经济运动的趋势和特征,并具有明显的结构化含义。实证结果表明,LDRSFM在中国宏观经济周期性特征研究方面具有一定的理论和应用价值。
关键词: 经济周期 , 因子模型 , 机制转换 , 主成分分析
LIU Zhen-Ya-1, DENG Lei-2. STUDY ON CHINAS BUSINESS CYCLE——A Largedimensional Regimeswitching Factor Model Approach[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2012, 31(10): 12-24.
刘振亚1, 邓磊2. 我国宏观经济周期性特征研究——基于高维机制转换因子模型的考察[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2012, 31(10): 12-24.
0 / / Recommend
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/
http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2012/V31/I10/12