Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2011, Vol. ›› Issue (7): 75-78.

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MEASURES ON SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OF CHINESE INVESTORS UNDER ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS

CHEN Sheng-fei1, XIE Wang-song2, ZHU Xu-qiang1   

  1. 1. Business School, Jiangsu Teacher University of Technology, Changzhou, Jiangsu 213001, China;
    2. School of Economics and Trade Management, University of Taizhou, Taizhou, Zhejiang 318000, China
  • Received:2011-05-03 Online:2012-03-02 Published:2011-07-16

论适应性预期下中国投资者对股市主观概率的测定

陈圣飞1, 谢汪送2, 朱旭强1   

  1. 1. 江苏技术师范学院, 江苏 常州 213001;
    2. 台州学院, 浙江 台州 318000
  • 基金资助:
    教育部2010年度人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA630013);江苏省教育厅2010年度高校哲学社会科学研究指导项目(2010SJD630008)

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Abstract: The price of stocks is mainly determined by investors'expectations.Under the theory of adaptive expectations,we could measure the subjective probability of investors in stock market.By analyzing the data of stock market in China,this paper found that Chinese investors wouldn't forecast the bull market or the bear market continuously,whose period was not more than two years.

Key words: adaptive expectations, subjective probability, random walk

摘要： 股市的涨跌离不开投资者的预期,在适应性预期的条件下,我们可以测定投资者对股市看法的主观概率。通过对我国股市十几年的数据分析,可以发现我国投资者对股市看法的主观概率是有规律的,投资者不会连续预测股市好转也不会连续预测股市恶化,一般都是以不超过两年为一个好转或恶化的阶段。

关键词: 适应性预期, 主观概率, 随机游走

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