Abstract: Using the method of variance decompositions,this paper assessed the role of compositional shifts on macroeconomic stabilization.Our decomposition of output growth volatility indicated as follows:(1) in calculating GDP both by expenditures and by producer,the main effect on macroeconomic stabilization is not compositional effect but volatility effect;(2) the incorrect direction of compositional shifts led to a limited effect on macroeconomic stabilization in China since 1986;(3) The compositional shifts in the second industry contributed to macroeconomic stabilization significantly;(4) some policies of compositional shifts,such as increasing the sector shares of the consumption and the third industry,reducing the volatility of manufacture sector,would lead to macroeconomic stabilization.

Key words: macroeconomic fluctuations, compositional shifts, macroeconomic stabilization

摘要： 本文利用方差分解方法,分别研究了在支出法和生产法GDP核算下,经济结构调整是否对宏观经济波动具有"熨平"效应。结果发现:(1)无论是以支出法还是生产法来衡量GDP,经济结构调整都对宏观经济波动具有有限的"熨平效应"。(2)结构调整之所以对宏观经济的"熨平"作用有限,是因为中国自1986年以来的结构调整方向有一定偏差。(3)第二产业内部的结构调整"熨平"宏观经济波动的作用较强。(4)要进一步发挥经济结构调整对宏观经济波动的"熨平效应",需要提高消费占GDP的比重,提高波动性小的第三产业中各行业占GDP的比重,同时减少波动性大的第二产业中各行业占GDP的比重,控制第二产业内部高波动性行业的发展速度或努力使其波动性下降。

关键词: 宏观经济波动, 结构调整, 经济周期平稳化