SOURCES OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH:1978—2007

Abstract

Abstract: Our main result is that China's economic growth is too dependent on investment,and China needs to change to intensive economy in the long run.The export-oriented growth model will likely become unsustainable in the future.The human capital,technological progress and institutional reform should be the main driving force of healthy and sustainable economic growth.

Key words: economic growth, TFP, growth accounting, technological progress, marketization, degree of openness

摘要： 中国经济增长过于依赖资本投入。从长期来看,中国经济需要完成向集约型经济的转型。在2000年以后突出表现出来的出口导向增长模式很可能在未来难以为继。人力资本、科技进步和制度改革应该是未来中国经济保持健康持续增长所需要依赖的主要动力。

关键词: 经济增长, 全要素生产率, 增长核算, 技术进步, 市场化, 对外经济开放程度

CLC Number:

F120.3

CHEN Yan-bin, YAO Yi-min. SOURCES OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH:1978—2007[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2010, (5): 20-28.

陈彦斌, 姚一旻. 中国经济增长的源泉:1978—2007年[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2010, (5): 20-28.

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