INFLATION UNCERTAINTY:MEASUREMENT BASED ON MODEL AND ECONOMIC EXPLANATION

Abstract

Abstract: Inflation uncertainty has large impact on macroeconomic variables,the analysis of effect of inflation on economic stability shows that inflation uncertainty can significantly influence consumption,but has no notable effect on investment and trade surplus.Our country's market-oriented economic transformation make consumption pay more and more important role in economic development,stabilizing inflation expectation becomes key part of economic growth steadily.So,government should promote the predictability,transparency and credibility of policy,improve monetary policy adjustment and control mechanism,balance market supply and demand to achieve economic stable and sustainable growth.

Key words: inflation, uncertainty, macro-economy

摘要： 通货膨胀的不确定性对宏观经济变量有较大的影响,本文通过考察我国通货膨胀对经济稳定的影响发现,通货膨胀不确定性主要对消费有显著影响,对投资和净出口的影响不明显。我国市场经济转型使得消费对经济发展的影响越来越大,稳定通货膨胀预期成为经济稳健运行的重要环节。为此,需要提高政策的可预见性,提高政策的透明度与公信力,完善货币政策调控机制,平稳市场供求,实现经济稳定可持续增长。

关键词: 通货膨胀, 不确定性, 宏观经济

CLC Number:

F821.5

LI Cheng, MA Wen-tao, WANG Bin. INFLATION UNCERTAINTY:MEASUREMENT BASED ON MODEL AND ECONOMIC EXPLANATION[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2010, (3): 38-44.

李成, 马文涛, 王彬. 通货膨胀不确定性:模型测度与经济解读[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2010, (3): 38-44.

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