Abstract: Whether trade and environment are compatible is still at debate in theoretical studies and often finds contradictory evidence in empirical studies. In this paper,the tests on the compatibility of manufactured exports and environment show that overall pollution intensity fell,with it falling faster in the capital and technique intensive industries than in the labor and resource intensive industries; technological effect had been enhanced stably; and structure of exports evolved towards the capital and technique intensive industries which are cleaner. Although as a whole manufactured exports are incompatible with environment due to large scale effects,new evolutions are favorable for the two parts to increase compatibility.

Key words: manufactured exports, decomposition model of environmental effects, compatibility, assessments

摘要： 贸易与环境是否相容,理论上存在争论,实证结论则相互排斥。工业制成品出口与环境目标的相容性检验表明,各行业污染强度全面下降,但资本技术密集型行业下降幅度大于劳动资源密集型行业,技术效应增进过程连续稳定,出口商品结构朝着更清洁的资本技术密集型行业发展。虽然总体上因规模效应较大使工业制品出口与环境不相容,但新变化有利于两者实现相容。

关键词: 工业制品出口, 环境效应分解模型, 相容, 评估