Abstract: This paper shows that ex-ante financial and ownership factors affect Chinese manufacturing firms' diversification decisions.Firms with low operation capability or low free cash flow are more likely to choose diversification,such marginal probability effect is about 5%~6%;firms with high largest shareholder holding ratio are less likely to choose diversification,such marginal effect is about 4%~7%.

Key words: ex-ante financial factors, ownership factors, diversification decision

摘要： 我国制造业上市公司是否选择多元化受到事先财务和股权特征的影响。事先营运能力越弱,自由现金流量越少的企业越可能选择多元化,其对企业选择多元化概率的边际影响在5%~6%之间;第一大股东持股比例越高的企业越不可能选择多元化,其边际影响约在4%~7%之间。

关键词: 事先财务因素, 股权因素, 多元化决策