Abstract: The structure changes of American inflation dynamic models tell us that when analyzing Chinese inflation,changes in economic structures and fiscal or monetary policies since 1980s should be considered,instead of simply using the sticky-prices inflation models.Only so,more reasonable estimations and predictions can be made.

Key words: inflation dynamics, rational expectation, sticky prices, GMM

摘要： 从美国通胀动态模型的结构性变化中我们可以得到启示,在对中国通胀动态机制建模分析、给予政策建议的研究中,应当考虑我国自20世纪80年代以来经济结构、财政货币政策的变化,尽量避免简单地套用既有的黏性价格或者黏性通胀理论模型。这样,在对我国通胀动态走势进行统计、计量分析研究过程中才可能更科学、合理。

关键词: 通胀动态, 理性预期, 黏性价格, 广义矩回归