Abstract: Inflation pressure is usually measured by the gap between real output and potential output over the changing rate of price level. Sometimes it is measured by the biased rate of money circulation speed to its trend. Since 1990,P-Star model is becoming international popular but seldom used by domestic researchers. Therefore,this paper tries to utilize the P-Star model to estimate the Chinese inflation pressure and give some suggestions.

Key words: P-Star model, inflation pressure, money supply, empirical model

摘要： 估计通货膨胀压力的常用方法是运用实际产出与潜在产出之间的缺口同价格变化率之间的关系来进行的,这种方法在国内已经很好地得到了应用,国内也有学者运用货币流通速度与其趋势值之间的偏移率来测算通货膨胀压力,但20世纪90年代以来在国际上得到较为广泛应用的P-Star模型国内还没有尝试。对中国数据的实证分析表明,运用P-Star方程来估算通货膨胀压力的变化,可以为国家价格总水平的调控提供参考。

关键词: P-Star模型, 通胀压力, 货币供应量, 经验模型