Abstract: Land resources are important material basis of survival and development of mankind.According to the assumption of David Romer,real economic growth will show a declining trend because of the limitations of land and other natural resources,namely,there exists a kind of drag caused by the consumption of land and other natural resources.Based on the analysis,the author computes China's economic growth drag of land resources during 1978~2005 in this paper,i.e.averages about 1.26 percent per annum.In other words,due to the consumption of land resources,China's economic growth rate has been reduced by average 1.26% annually during 1978~2005.This number is rather large.Computed on the basis of the data,China's economic growth rate will be reduced to 74% of the present because of the drag of land resources in 2030,and it will be reduced to 57% of the present in 2050.

Key words: economic growth, land resources, drag

摘要： 土地资源是人类赖以生存与发展的重要物质基础。根据大卫·罗默的假说,由于土地与其他自然资源的限制,实际的经济增长将呈下降趋势,即存在因土地与其他自然资源的消耗而引起的"尾效"。1978—2005年,中国经济增长中土地资源的"尾效"平均每年约为1.26个百分点。也就是说,由于土地资源的消耗,在1978—2005年期间,中国的经济增长速度平均每年降低了1.26%。按照这一数据推算下去,到2030年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的74%;到2050年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的57%。

关键词: 经济增长, 土地资源, 尾效