Table of Content

16 April 2023, Volume 43 Issue 4

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THE GOAL，FOCUS AND APPROACH OF CHINESE PATH TO MODERNIZATION FOR COMMON PROSPERITY

HUANG Taiyan, HAN Mengru

2023, 43(4):  4-12. 

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This paper compares the development goal of Chinese path to modernization of common prosperity and finds that the weakness of Chinese path to modernization of common prosperity in China is that the lowincome group is too large，and the difficulty is to increase the income of lowincome peopleTherefore，to effectively promote Chinese path to modernization of common prosperity，we must focus on increasing the income of lowincome peopleAccording to data from the National Bureau of Statistics，lowincome groups in China are mainly distributed in rural areas，central and western regions，and key employment groupsAccording to the characteristics of lowincome people's income sources，from the four main income sources of wage income，net operating income，net property income，and net transfer income，this paper proposes basic ways to broaden the income sources of rural，central and western regions，and key employment groups，so that more residents can enter middleincome groups，and achieve the development goal of common prosperity as scheduled
Key words：common prosperity；Chinese path to modernization；lowincome group；middleincome group；income source of residents

CHINA'S MACROECONOMY RECOVERS MODERATELY UNDER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS——China's Macroeconomic Report 2022—2023

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2023, 43(4):  13-35. 

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2022 is a year when the Chinese economy faced “triple pressures” and resisted unexpected shocksOn the one hand，the domestic ultralargescale market，complete industrial chain，new energyrelated industries continued to improve，and the trade surplus remained high，providing continuous impetus for the stabilization of the macro economyOn the other hand，the COVID19 repeatedly breaking out on a large scale，the RussiaUkraine conflict disturbing the world energy market，high temperature and drought，deep adjustment of the real estate market，insufficient consumption，and weakened confidence have made the economy only weakly stabilizedThe negative output gap continued，and the economic recovery process was relatively slow2023 is the dividend window period after the “20th National Congress”，the period that the “14th Fiveyear Plan” inherits the past and ushers in the later period，and is also a period of accelerated structural adjustment of international and domestic development drivers，and the new development pattern enters a period of accelerated implementationOn the one hand，the “triple pressures”，especially the problem of shrinking demand，will continue in 2023On the other hand，with the weakening of the epidemic factors，the gradual recovery of consumption vitality，and the promotion of highquality development by the systematic policy layout，the macroeconomy will be fully restored and the overall improvement will be achievedHowever，it should be noted that there are still many challenges in how to further stabilize consumption and build a macroeconomic governance system that is compatible with the incentives of the new development pattern

HAS COMMERCIAL BANK SUPERVISION RESTRAINED THE REAL ECONOMY FROM “REMOVING FROM REALITY”——Evidence from the Perspective of Financialization of Entity Enterprises

MENG Qingbin, LIU Jianhan, XIE Peilin

2023, 43(4):  36-52. 

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In recent years，the problem of “removal from reality” in Chinas real economy has become increasingly serious，and the risks in financial system are accumulatingIn this context，this paper takes Ashare nonfinancial listed companies from the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2019 as samples，from the perspective of microentities，examines the impact of commercial bank supervision on the financialization of entities and explores whether the commercial bank supervision policy can play an important role in making the real economy “removing back to reality”This paper finds that strengthening commercial bank supervision has significantly reduced the level of financialization of entitiesThis result is still valid after considering the endogenousness and testing the sensitivity of the regression modelThe mechanism test shows that the supervision of commercial banks can narrow the gap between financial income and entity income，improve the transparency of corporate information，and thereby inhibits its financializationFurther research has shown that microprudential supervision of commercial banks has a more significant inhibitory effect on corporate financialization，but the coordination of macroprudential supervision and microprudential supervision can enhance their respective effectsThis paper clarifies the role of financial regulation on micro enterprises，constructs a prudential supervision indicator system for Chinese commercial banks，and further explores its micro impact，providing a decisionmaking basis for the authorities to guide the real economy through macro regulation to “move back to reality”

PUNISHMENT ANNOUNCEMENT，CORPORATE PERFORMANCE AND EXECUTIVE TURNOVER：AN EXPLANATION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF CORPORATE REPUTATION

LI Junlin, LI Shi, ZHU Peihua, ZHANG Liyang

2023, 43(4):  53-68. 

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In the modernized economy，reputation is closely related to business performanceWith the punishment to the enterprise violation regarded as the negative impact on its reputation，a large number of empirical facts show that the punishment announcement will significantly reduce the enterprise performanceHowever，the findings of this paper are that，enterprises can alleviate the impact of negative reputation on enterprise performance through executive turnoverIn a sense，this mitigation effect means that it will reduce the regulatory efficiency for enterprise violationThe above findings reveal the internal relationship between organizational reputation and executive turnover decisionmaking，and also provide some possible enlightenments for understanding and improving the regulation and punishment mechanism on listed companies

THE TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSES OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GAP IN CHINA

XU Shengxia, LIU Qiang, FENG Liang

2023, 43(4):  69-84. 

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Revealing the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of China's regional economic disparities，identifying key factors affecting regional economic development，and providing path choices for promoting coordinated regional economic development are important elements in achieving the goal of common prosperityThis article tentatively combines the policy shift，historical evolution，and quantitative measurement of China's regional economic development，and explores the evolution characteristics and sources of regional economic disparitiesMoreover，this paper explores the nonlinear and spatial radiation effects of economic development，industrial structure upgrading，and urbanization on regional economic disparities within the same research framework for causal analysisThere is a trend of fluctuation and narrowing in terms of the difference of regional economy since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949，and it has a cyclical featureIn space，the difference of regional economy is characterized by a decreasing distribution in the east，the middle，and the west，and the gap between the east region and the middle and west region is the key to affecting the relative equilibrium of the regional economyFurther research shows that when the economic development reaches a certain level，the regional economic gap can be effectively narrowed by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and the construction of new urbanizationThe effect of new urbanization is mainly reflected by the spatial radiation between regions，and the effect of industrial structure upgrading is mainly reflected through internal regional economic development

THE IMPACT OF LIVELIHOOD STRATEGY CHOICES ON THE POVERTY ALLEVIATION STABILITY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS——Based on a Survey of 1 133 Families Lifted out of Poverty in Liangshan Area

HE Lilong, YANG Ziyu

2023, 43(4):  85-101. 

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The stability of poverty alleviation is measured based on the dynamic monitoring results of the per capita household income for three consecutive years （whether the income stably stays above 15 times the poverty line from 2018 to 2020） and the investigation status of the repayment ability of microloans for poverty alleviation of rural households lifted out of povertyThe indicators for the identification and measurement of household livelihood strategies are based on the type and duration of livelihood activities engaged in by household pillar membersUsing the data of 1 133 families lifted out of poverty obtained from field research in Liangshan area，this paper empirically explores the impact of livelihood strategy choices on the poverty alleviation stability of rural householdsThe results show that：（1） Livelihood strategies affect the poverty alleviation stability of rural householdsCompared with autonomous livelihood households，the poverty alleviation stability of policydependent livelihood households is insufficient；among autonomous livelihood，multiple livelihood strategy with nonfarm employment is more conductive to stable poverty alleviation than pure agricultural livelihood（2） The impact of livelihood strategies on poverty alleviation is moderated by household demographic characteristics，whether they are registered impoverished families，and the support policies，among which the stimulation of endogenous motivation of rural households' poverty alleviation development，the organization of household management and the integration of industrial chain promoted by policy support help to suppress the unstable poverty alleviation effect of policydependent livelihood and pure agricultural livelihood（3） Livelihood strategies influence the stability of poverty alleviation through two channels：household income structure and income level
Key words：livelihood strategies；poverty alleviation stability；autonomous livelihood；Liangshan area；influence channel


THE CUSTOMER PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS FROM AN EMBEDDED SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE

BAO Qun, SHI Shaobin, SHENG Mingquan

2023, 43(4):  102-112. 

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Using the data of Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2020 as the research sample，this paper explores the spillover effect of customers' total factor productivity on supplier companies from the perspective of embedded supply chainIt is found that customers have productivity spillover effects on firms through the supply chain pathThis effect mainly works by optimizing the resource allocation efficiency of enterprises rather than promoting technological innovationFurther analysis finds that the spillover effect of customer productivity is more pronounced in enterprises with low customer concentration and high level of regional marketization and nonstateowned enterprisesThe research helps enrich and promote the connotation of supply chain theory and industrial organization theory，and provides microevidence for highquality and sustainable economic development