Table of Content

16 January 2019, Volume 39 Issue 1

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CHINAS MACROECONOMIC REPORT 2018—2019——Chinas Macroeconomy in the New Era of Reform and Opening up#br#

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2019, 39(1):  4-26. 

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2018 is destined to be quite a year for Chinas macroeconomy. The steady recovery trend of Chinas macroeconomy starting from 2016 has been reversed due to the fission of the world economic structure, dramatic changes in market sentiment, variations of the microfoundation, superposition of mismatches in economic policies, and further concentrated exposure of structural institutional issues. The core indicators of the macroeconomy show a trend of “continued slow down” in “stable and changeable”, and the downward pressure continued to increase. This shows that Chinas macroeconomy has neither “bottomed out and stabilized” nor entered the “new cycle” of stable recovery. Instead, it has stepped into a new stage of the new normal of Chinas economy in the superposition of internal “tough war” and external “trade war”. The pressure of sustained economic downturn in 2018 is difficult to be effectively alleviated with the shortterm policyIt is necessary to use a new round of comprehensive reforms and openingup and a new round of supplyside structural reforms to resolve it and hedge it. The exposure of internal and external pressures and problems has determined that the window of Chinas major reforms has fully emerged since 2018. In 2019, China will surely embark on a new journey of reform and opening up.

ENTERPRISE FINANCING SCALE, OWNERSHIP DISCRIMINATION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

SUN Chenghao1，2SHEN Kunrong1

2019, 39(1):  27-42. 

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In this paper, we first measure the capacity utilization of Chinas industrial sectors, and then introduce financial scale and ownership discrimination into the

theoretical framework of excess capacity to understand how excess capacity emerges. The results show that excess capacity is closely related to firm financing scale, and ownership discrimination has an indirect effect on capacity utilization through influencing the composition of the firm financing scale. The overall financing scale in an industry has a significant negative effect on the excess capacity after eliminating technical efficiency, and the effect alternates between promotion and inhibition across time. From the perspective of ownership, excess capacity is reduced for the private enterprises, but deteriorated for the financing scale of state owned enterprises and foreign enterprises. After 2008, the increase in the amount of loans is more likely to cause excess capacity than before. Meanwhile, the phenomenon of ownership discrimination arises once again, and its negative effect on the excess capacity becomes stronger.

MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY, BUSINESS CYCLE AND BANK RISKTAKING#br#

SONG Ke1,LI Zhen1,ZHAO Xuankai1，2

2019, 39(1):  43-58. 

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This paper empirically studies the effects of macroprudential policy on commercial bank risktaking based on the unbalanced panel data of 227 Chinese commercial banks from the year 2005 to 2016. The results show that an intensification of macroprudential policy materially reduces bank risk. Moreover, this significant negative relationship does not change with the changes of banks risktaking measures, business scope, and crossborder acquisition. The business cycle has an asymmetric impact on the effectiveness of macroprudential policyThat is, macroprudential policy has a stronger and more pronounced inhibitory effect on bank risktaking during economic downturn. With respect to the mechanism, we find that macroprudential policy increases bank profits that reduce bank risktaking.

MONETARY POLICY, FINANCIAL CYCLES AND MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS#br#

CUI Jianjun,ZHANG Dongyang

2019, 39(1):  59-71. 

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Integrating multidimensional information of financial markets, this paper uses the principal component analysis to synthesize Chinas financial cycle index. On this basis, the TVPSVVAR model is constructed to study the timevarying interaction between Chinas monetary policy, financial cycle and macroeconomic variables during 2003—2017. The study found as follows: (1) There is a significant timevarying interaction between Chinas monetary policy, financial cycle and macroeconomic variables. (2) Financial transmission channels may distort the effectiveness of monetary policy. Through financial transmission channels, monetary policy will not only restrain economic growth, but may also increase inflation. (3) The effect of financial cycle on the output effect of monetary policy lags behind the effect on its price effect. In the short run, the timevarying characteristics of the output effect of monetary policy are not much different from the financial transmission channels. However, over time, the negative impact of financial prosperity on output may eventually distort the output effect of monetary policy and may even have negative macroeconomic effects. Based on this, we believe that the monetary authorities should be wary of the distortion of the effectiveness of the financial prosperity on monetary policy, prudent operation, and should not undertake too many tasks to stimulate output.

INTERNET USE, EMPLOYMENT DECISION AND EMPLOYMENT QUALITY——Empirical Evidence from CGSS Data#br#

MAO Yufei1, ZENG Xiangquan2, ZHU Huilin2

2019, 39(1):  72-85. 

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Based on the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, this paper uses multivariate Probit model to test the impact of internet use on individual employment decision, and discusses its impact on employment quality under different employment types. The results show as follows: Using the Internet can significantly promote the probability of individual engaged in standardemployment and opportunityentrepreneurshipUsing the internet as a major information access channel can promote the possibility of standardemployment and opportunityentrepreneurshipUsing the internet in leisure time for social networking, learning, entertainment or other different activities will have different impact on individual employment decision. For the various dimensions of employment quality, the internet use can significantly improve the income of different employment types, and for standardemployment and survivalentrepreneursthe internet use can reduce their working time and improve their work autonomy.

STUDY ON THE CREDITORS INTEREST PROTECTION OF HISTORICAL LOSS ENTERPRISES——Empirical Test Based on the Perspective of Owner Equity Structure

LIU Hongxia1,ZHOU Xiaomin1，2LI Rensi3

2019, 39(1):  86-101. 

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The owner equity structure of the historical loss enterprises has the unbalanced characteristics of high equity, high capital reserves, low surplus reserves and high negative undistributed profit. It is important to design the internal structure of the owners equity of the historical loss enterprises, to coordinate the contract relationship between the shareholders, the creditors and the management and to improve the protection of the creditors interests. Based on the data of 2007—2016 Ashare listed companies in China, this study found as follows: The higher historical loss, the worse creditors interest protection. The higher equity scale, the better creditors interest protection. The higher capital reserves (especially the equity premium), the less creditors interest protection. Surplus reserve has no significant influence to the creditors interest protection because of the small amount. This paper focuses on the historical loss enterprise, exploring the protection of creditors from the perspective of owner equity structure for the first time, aiming at providing empirical evidence for national policy making.