Table of Content

16 November 2017, Volume 37 Issue 11

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THE CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF ECOMMERCE ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT

LIU Chang-geng,ZHANG Lei,HAN Lei

2017, 37(11):  5-18. 

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Using Chinas provincelevel dynamic panel data from 2002 to 2013 and SYSGMM method, this paper empirically analyses the consumption effects of ecommerce economy development. We find that the development of ecommerce economy increases the size of the overall consumption significantly, and promotes the spatial agglomeration of crossregional consumption. Besides, it expands the urbanrural consumption gap. The mechanism is ecommerce economy development widens income gap between the urban and rural residents. The three effects are more obvious in the central and western regions in China. Compared with the previous research, this article more systematically examines the consumption effects of ecommerce economy development, especially consumption pooling effect and consumption gap effect. Conclusion of this paper offers another channel to release the consumption potential on the background of Chinas New Normal. By developing ecommerce economy, it provides empirical evidence for building regional ecommerce consumption cluster center, and indicates the development direction for ecommerce economy, which is to pay more attention to promote a fair share of ecommerce economy earnings between the urban and rural residents in order to narrow the consumption gap.

THE LONGTERM PATH OF SUPPLYSIDE REFORM IN CHINA FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF FACTOR MARKET——Based on Stochastic Frontier Approach Analysis of Economic Growth

CHEN Shi-yi,XU Yan-yu

2017, 37(11):  19-27. 

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From the perspective of factor marketization, this paper discusses the longterm path of Chinas supplyside reform. We start from economic growth accounting. Based on provincial panel data of 2005—2013, by using stochastic frontier model in the form of Translog Production Function, we find that TFP is the main source of nonagricultural economic growth, which means China has transferred into intensive growth model in recent years. However, the technical efficiency from TFP decomposition is low and declining year by year, which becomes a major obstacle of TFP growth, even economic growth. Distortions of factor market are the main reasons for the low technical efficiency, while promoting factor marketization can definitely mitigate distortions. Thus, this paper argues that factor marketization should be the longterm path of Chinas supplyside structural reform, which can promote factors flowing into efficient enterprises and improve overall productivity of society. In view of this, after referring status quo and problems of four factors: labor, capital, energy and land, this paper gives a bundle of marketoriented reform policy recommendations.

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF FAMAFRENCH FIVEFACTOR MODEL

LIU Zhen-ya,LI Bo

2017, 37(11):  28-37. 

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In this study, we employ the dynamic model averaging (DMA) method to analyze dynamic behaviors of FamaFrench fivefactor (FF5) model. With the same datasets of Fama and French, our results show that the predictive power and effectiveness of FF5 vary all the time. No fixed factormodel can explain and predict the returns of different portfolios simultaneously. The prediction mean square error (MSE) of DMA method is significantly lower than FF5.

WHY SOME POPULAR OPINIONS ABOUT MERCANTILISM IN TEXTBOOKS ARE MISTAKEN

JIA Gen-liang,ZHANG Zhi

2017, 37(11):  38-44. 

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Though mercantilism is the essential content of textbooks of history of economic thought, its core view has been mistaken as “wealth is money, money is wealth” for a long time. Some scholars mistakenly think that the system of mercantilist economic policy was built on the mixture of gold and silver with wealth. In this paper, through the study of the original literature, classics and the latest research achievements, we draw the conclusion that these views were wrong. There were some earlier mercantilists realized that the countries prosperous through manufacturing. The economic policy system promoted the rise of England and still had important impact. The textbooks should be amended and give a true exposition of mercantilism.

THE RETHINKING OF SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL RISK：EVOLUTION, MEASUREMENT AND TEST

FANG Fang,LIN Hai-tao

2017, 37(11):  45-57. 

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This paper provides the evolution mechanism of systemic financial risk, puts forward the optimized systemic financial risk measurement system, and tests empirically the functioning of the measurement system, in order to provide new standpoints for accurate and comprehensive measurement of systemic financial risk in theory and operation. The results show that in the process of evolution of systemic financial risk, asset prices and commodity prices, as the evolution carrier, can realtime monitor the size of the risk. The leverage of national economic sectors, as the evolution carrier, can forecast the size of the risk in advance. Therefore, the optimized measurement system by two dimensions of price and leverage can reflect the changes of systemic financial risk. After the empirical test of measurement system, monitoring index system identifies the period of high financial system pressure, forecasting index system identifies the period of high of national economy leverage. As a result, the monitoring function of price variables and the forecasting function of leverage variables can be confirmed.

GOVERNMENTFIRM COLLUSION, ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND FIRMS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

WANG Yan-hao

2017, 37(11):  58-71. 

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By establishing a panel dataset ranging from 2003 to 2007 with annual survey of industrial firms and prefecturelevel data on firms investment in pollution control, this paper investigates how regionlevel environmental regulation affects manufacturers total factor productivity and how governmentfirm collusion compromises this effect. We find that firms contemporaneous TFP decreases by 1% when the intensity of environmental regulation, measured by the ratio of firms pollution abatement and control investment to value added, increases by 1%. The possibility that local government colludes with polluting firms mitigates this negative marginal effect. We believe the reciprocal governmentfirm collusion enables the favored firms to escape from rigorous regulation with lenient regulations and penalties. The policy implication of this paper is the central government should adopt unified law enforcement to escape from prisoners dilemma of environmental regulation. We also provide justification for the reform of vertical management system in monitoring polluting firms and enforcing laws by environment agencies.

MIGRATION TYPES, HOUSEHOLD REGISTER IDENTITY, AND WAGE INCOME

LI Jing1,LI Yi-fei2,ZHOU Xiao3

2017, 37(11):  72-84. 

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Based on Chinese residents income survey data in 2013 (CHIP), this paper studies the various types of migration on wage income levels. OLS and PSM estimation results show that all types of migration are conducive to enhancing the level of wage income. Using local instrumental variable method, it is found that the conclusions of this study are still valid. In migration range perspective, the average income growth effect outside the city migration greater than the average city income growth effects of migration. Subtype of household registration, the average income growth of rural household registration migration effect is greater than the average income growth effects of urban household registration. Revenue growth effect a comprehensive comparison of various types of migrations. It could be arranged from strong to weak as follows: rural household population outside the city migration, the migration of local residents outside the city, outside the urban household population migration city, outside the city of permanent immigration migration, rural household population city migration, permanent migration of immigrants in the city, the citys urban household population migration, migration of local residents in the city. Urbanization core is to meet residents freedom of movement. From the conclusions of this study, the nearest encourage urbanization and population hinder crossregional flow model of urbanization, income growth has not yet been energized support. In promoting reform of the household registration system and the equalization of public services at the same time, we should pay attention to establish a unified national factor market and wellstructured system of urban space.

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT DEBT AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT BOND COST——Evidence from 1 589 Local Government Bonds

Economics and Management School, Wuhan University

2017, 37(11):  85-97. 

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China local government bonds enter to the normal, largescale release stage from 2015, the pricing of LGBs need to be studied. This paper constructs the local economic structure, mechanism of government debt risk profile and local government bond issuance rates. By using the data of local government bonds of the 34 provincial municipalities, the empirical research focuses on the local government bond interest rates spread over the treasury, with economic structure of the issuer, the government debt ratio, and the bond market capital supply and other features. Quantitative analysis show that the relation of local government bond rates spread, with the investment ratio, local government debt rate is positive significantly. However, as the regional economic heterogeneity, the relation among local government bonds issue spreads with the invest ratio within western region, and the debt ratio within northeastern region, is significant negative. Issue of oriented underwriting increase the local government bond spreads significantly, but the relationship between spreads and Shibor is no significant. Accordingly, we propose policy advice of reduce the cost of local government bonds, is to accelerate regional development, increase local government bond liquidity, and bond volume.