Table of Content

16 June 2017, Volume 37 Issue 6

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THE FORMATION,OBSTACLE AND BREAKTHROUGH PATH OF THE NEW PATTERN OF “BOTH STATEOWNED AND PRIVATE SECTORS ADVANCE” FOR CHINESE INNOVATION CHAIN

ZHANG Jie1,JI Zhen-lin2, GAO De-bu1

2017, 37(6):  5-18. 

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At present stage,stateowned enterprises have been positioned as the leader of Chinas economic development,and become one of the most important means for Chinas government to promote and obtain rapid growth of GDP in shorttermThey are not only the core means to carry out and implement the national macroeconomic regulation and control policy and the transmission mechanism of the important macroeconomic policy,but also the largest beneficiaries of industrial policies actively implemented by every levels of governments in ChinaTherefore,this paper emphasizes the remaining various defects in the five stages of Chinese innovation chain and the rational positions of stateowned and private enterprisesIn addition,this paper investigates how to construct possible mode and implement path for the cooperation between stateown and private enterprises in various stages in the innovation chainOn this basis,this paper puts forward some necessary policy suggestions and possible reform breakthrough in the future

POLITICAL CONNECTION,STRATEGIC CHOICE OF M&A AND CORPORATE VALUE

SUN Meng-nan,YAO Hai-xin,ZHAO Li-juan

2017, 37(6):  19-32. 

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This paper takes the listed firms that have experienced M&A in 2010 as a sample,and tests the influence of political connection on corporate value of the year (2010) and the five straight years after M&A (2011—2015),and the influence of political connection on different strategic choices of M&AThe main conclusions are found as follows: both the central political and local political connection have significant positive influence on corporate value after M&A in the short term and long termFurther study shows that,overall,under certain circumstances,the cross land acquisition strategy plays a partial mediating role in the central political connection and corporate value (short/long term)That is to say,the central political connection enterprises further strengthen the promotion of enterprise value across the implementation of the cross land acquisition strategy；The local political connection can significantly promote the implementation of the diversification strategy of M&A,whereas the implementation of the diversification strategy of M&A further enhances the inhibitory impact on the promotion of corporate value (short/long term)That is to say,the diversification strategy of M&A plays a partial mediating role in the influencing mechanism of the local political connection on corporate value,and has the inhibitory effect on the direct positive effect


ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCE OF CHINESE INDUSTRYS GROWTH: SCALE OR STRUCTURE

XU Jia-bin,LIU Yong-feng

2017, 37(6):  33-44. 

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Taking 35 major industrial subsectors as an example,this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic evolution process of Chinas industrial growth during 1991 to 2004The research has shown that scale and structure are two main driving forces of Chinas industrial growthThe contribution of scale is always very large,and the scale change effect of capital is bigger than the scale change effect of laborThe contribution of structure factor is relatively lowThe concentration of industry is gradually increased,and the topten subsectors which were ranked by their industrial added value have turned to technology intensive industries,and this reflects Chinas industry is in the process of transformation and upgrading

FINANCIAL SHOCKS AND THE REAL ESTATE MARKET FLUCTUATIONS—— A Macroscopic Analysis Framework and Empirical Evidence in China

GAO Bo1,FAN Xue-rui1,ZHAO Feng-jun2

2017, 37(6):  45-56. 

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From the perspective of macro analysis,this paper presents the hypothesis of the relationship between the financial variables and the real estate market,“the overall impactthe transmission mechanism” by constructing financial conditions index of China (including FCI1 containing house prices and FCI2 not containing)This paper empirically analyzes on the relationship between financial conditions index (FCI1 and FCI2) and real estate indexThe empirical results show that house prices can better reflect a countrys financial situation than share prices in the asset marketAmong the financial variables introduced to the financial condition index,the interest rate and house price are the most highly correlated,and the shocks from house price and interest rate would have a permanent impact on total outputThe impacts of real estate climate index,the real estate investment index,and house price index on FCI shock are significant,and there is different performanceSince a significant impact of house on residents wealth,financial condition and macro economy is found,monetary policy should interfere in the real estate market at the proper time and with the right level of intervention,and meantime,attention should be paid to the effective combination of various monetary policy tools

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT RATIONING ON THE FLUCTUATION OF CHINAS REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY

ZENG Guo-an,LEI Ze-heng

2017, 37(6):  57-67. 

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Credit is an important source to support the progressing scale of real estate investment and consumption,while the real estate market is a highrisk market which would have the higher probability to occur moral hazard and adverse selection risk,therefore,credit supply of commercial banks in the real estate market will inevitably be constrained by credit rationing behaviorCredit rationing constraint the credit resources on real estate industryIt leads to imbalance between investment and consumption,which then causes structural distortions in supply and demand and fluctuations of real estate market in turn Furthermore,Credit rationing restricts the result of monetary policy,further amplifying the effect of fluctuations in real estate marketBy constructing the credit rationing model,this paper calculates the change trend of the credit rationing in commercial banks and its impact on the real estate market in different periodsEmpirical result indicates that there is significant correlation between the variation of credit rationing degree and the real estate market volatilityOn the one hand,credit rationing constraints path dependence of real estate output,which affects investment and consumption structure in the real estate marketOn the other hand,credit rationing controls effects of fiscal policies and quantitative monetary policiesAccording to those findings,this paper puts forward method of weaken the position of Commercial bank and extending credit supplying institution to restrict the negative impact of credit rationing on the development of the real estate market


HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS,SPECULATIVE EQUILIBRIUM AND AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUTURES PRICING

CHEN Biao-jin

2017, 37(6):  68-80. 

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Agricultural commodity futures market is limited arbitrage and bounded rationality Assumed traders heterogeneous beliefs and expected in “rule of thumb”,this paper constructs a speculative equilibrium pricing model of agricultural commodity futuresThe model displays that agricultural commodity futures price is determined by traders expectationsThe futures price is influenced by pre futures price,spot and futures price change trend,traders structure and their expectation patternHedging and price discovery efficiency are higher in the market dominated by basic analysis tradersThe empirical tests on Chinas seven major agricultural commodity futures show that the equilibrium pricing model is effectiveIt means that disclosing spot price information,nurturing and guiding traders to predict with basic analysis can improve the efficiency of agricultural commodity futures markets


RESEARCH ON THE DEBT PROBLEMS OF STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

ZHOU Ye-an1,YU Chen-yang2,YANG Xiao-jing3,QUAN Ting1

2017, 37(6):  81-95. 

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An empirical study on the sample data of A share listed companies in manufacturing industry from 1995—2014 shows that ownership factors have no significant effect in the choice of capital structure,even if the capital structure is divided into long and short term is also trueROA,ratio of tangible assets,growth,company size and the actual tax rate have significant impacts on the capital structure of listed companiesThe two most important factors are ROA and the company scaleThe empirical results show that the stateowned debt indeed constitutes the main of macro debt from the perspective of the amount of data,but in terms of manufacturing,the debt level and its economic features are matchedThe scale and ROA may sufficiently explain the high level of debtThe excessive debt of stateowned enterprises said at least manufacturing is not trueSOE debt risk may come from the platform stateowned enterprisesThe relevant policy should be designed for such enterprises


TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND VALUEADDED TRADE——The Effect of WTO Membership on Chinas Exports

WANG Xue-jun,PAN Jiang

2017, 37(6):  96-109. 

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Rapid growth in crossborder intermediate goods trade has made the traditional statistics on gross volume seriously mismeasuring a countrys gains from trade in the global value chainThis study assess the effect of WTO on Chinas exports with new data on trade in value added and compare how trade liberalization affects Chinas gross exports and value added exports differentlyUsing a properly specified gravity model,we obtain more reliable estimation of accession effectsFirst,Chinas access to the WTO has promoted its aggregate exports,but the gross bilateral trade statistics overstate the WTO tradepromoting effectsSecond,the effects of the WTO on Chinas exports vary across sectors,which are strong and positive for nonmanufacturing,manufacturing and services,but strong and negative for agriculture,forestry,and fishingFinally,at the sector level,manufacturing is the only one in which the gross trade statistics overstate the impact of WTO membership,while,for other three are underestimated