Table of Content

16 October 2015, Volume 35 Issue 10

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POPULATION AGING, PUBLIC HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND  ECONOMIC GROWTH

WU Jun-pei,ZHAO Bin

2015, 35(10):  5. 

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This paper analyzes the growthoriented optimal structure and relative scale of public human capital investment in an aging society by establishing an extended overlappinggeneration model which endogenizes population aging. The theoretical analyses indicate that there are inverse Ucurve relationships between the relative scale and structure of public human capital investment and economic growth. The optimal scale and structure of public human capital investment are reflected by the correlation of aging population and economic growth. Specifically, if aging has positive (negative) effects on economic growth, the growthoriented policy is to increase (decrease) public human capital investment to GDP ratio and public health investment to public human capital investment ratio. The empirical studies based on the panel data of Chinese provinces suggest that population aging has negative effects on economic growth. The scale of the public human capital investment and the proportion of public human health investment become so large, lying in the decline stage of inverse Ucurve, that they depress the economic growth through crowdedout effects. The policy implications of this paper are as follows: the government should increase the public education investment to public human capital investment ratio and encourage more efficient social private capital to invest in human capital accumulation so as to decrease the relative scale of public human capital investment; the scale of public physical investment should be reinforced at present.

POPULATION AGING, PENSION FUNDS AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL  FLOWS: MECHANISM AND EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

LYU Jian-xing1, SUN Wen-kai-2

2015, 35(10):  20. 

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In this paper, we reviewed the impact mechanism of population aging on international capital flowsBased on panel data of 1993-2012 in 98 countries or regions to test this relation, we also verified the impact mechanism of pension funds as mediator. The result showed that capitallabor ratio and current account balances were the main paths of population aging on international capital flows. The higher the degree of population aging, the capital would more incline to outflow, no matter the middle and high income countries or low income countries. With the reform of PayAsYouGo (PAYG) pension funds system, as the capital pool of pension funds, the scale would gradually expand, and it would induce international capital outflow.

THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS ON CHINA S ASSET PRICE  ——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

CUI Hui-ying

2015, 35(10):  35. 

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Introducing “social pooling and individual account combination”, this paper builds a rational expectation OLG model with bequest motive and Chinas mixed pension system，and proves that the rate of labor force and total population is positively related to asset prices. On this basis, this paper takes two types of assets—stocks and commodity houses as examples to analyze the influence of China s demographic structure on asset prices. This paper finds that China s demographic structure only has a significant impact on housing prices, but has no significant impact on stock prices. This results come from the realistic characteristics of Chinas stock market, the real estate market, the structure of residents financial assets and so on. According to the results of this paper, appropriate demographic structure policies will help to promote the steady development of the real estate market.

THE WELFARE COST OF CREDIT DISCRIMINATION IN CHINA

XIAO Zheng-yan-1,GUO Yu-mei-1,GUO Jun-jie-2

2015, 35(10):  46. 

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The stateowned enterprises and private enterprises credit discrimination is a unique phenomenon in the process of china s economic transformation. Based on the financial accelerator models, this paper incorporates enterprise heterogeneity and a banking sector into a newKeynesian DSGE model to study the social welfare loss caused by credit discrimination. The numerical analysis shows that credit discrimination would increase the social welfare loss by 62% because it amplifies privateowned enterprises  output volatility and propagates the inflation volatility. Moreover, this paper finds that credit discrimination would cause social welfare loss under different monetary policy regime. Finally, this paper concludes that to eliminate the welfare loss the government should remove the credit discrimination.

MOTIVATIONS OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS: ALTRUISM OR EXCHANGE#br# ——Evidence from CHARLS

LIU Yan

2015, 35(10):  56. 

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Economists  interest for private intervivos monetary and time transfer has given rise to further research and thinking about the motivation of transfers. Traditionally there are two explanations for intrafamily transfers: altruism and exchange. Using updated data from CHALRS, this article gives an empirical analysis of motivation for private intervivos transfers in China. We found that there are mixed motivations for intergenerational transfers, while altruism is more obvious. Meanwhile the demonstration effect is significant, individuals will give their parents more monetary transfers and visits more to teach their children to care about parents. Compared with developed countries, the pension burden in China is relatively lighter, however, with the deepening of population aging, it is crucial to refine current pension and social security systems and establish more nursing homes to improve the life of the elderly.

 CORPORATE CONTROL, CAPITAL LIQUIDITY AND  MERGER & ACQUISITION PERFORMANCE#br# ——On the Equity Acquisition of China Listed Companies from Interactive Perspective

ZHOU Yu-sheng-1,SONG Guang-hui-2

2015, 35(10):  67. 

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Previous papers studied the effect of liquidity and corporate control on M&A performance respectively, without considering the endogenous influence between corporate control and capital market liquidity, which will make the conclusions biased. This research combines the two class factors from interactive perspective, considers the mutual influence between control rights and the liquidity, and analyzes the contribution of each of the control variables and liquidity variables to M&A performance with using Shapley value decomposition. This paper designs a multivariable quintile regression model which studies the impact of corporate control on M&A performance adjusted by liquidity. The research shows that liquidity has obvious influence on the relation between M&A performance and control right. When money market liquidity is higher, the effect of control on M&A performance is lower; when the stock market liquidity is higher, the effect of control on M&A performance is more significant positively. The adjustment effect of stock liquidity exerted on the relation between M&A performance and corporate control is not obvious.

THE MARKET SIZE STRUCTURE, COMPETITION DEGREE AND  SMES RELATIONSHIP LENDING

CHENG Chao

2015, 35(10):  88. 

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This paper studies the relationship between the banking competition degree and SMEs relationship lending, as well as the influence of the market size structure to this kind of relationship. Information hypothesis holds that since asymmetric information and agency problems, monopoly power increases bank internality relationship lending, so there was a negative correlation between relationship lending and the degree of competition. However, more and more studies have challenged the information hypothesis. Based on the mathematical derivation, we use 352 SMEs unbalanced panel data of the county areas of Jiangsu province in the year 2011-2015 for empirical analysis. The results show that: the market size structure is an important factor in determining the relationship between competition and relationship lending, when large banks dominate the credit market,the bank competition on relationship lending is negative; when small and mediumsized banks dominate the credit market, competition is conducive to relationship lending. On this basis, we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.

IS PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE RELEVANT FOR LOCATION CHOICE  OF SEQUENTIAL INVESTMENT——Evidence from China s Industrial Enterprises

QI Jian-hong,LIU Hui

2015, 35(10):  100. 

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This paper breaks through the traditional static analysis methods and firstly tests the influence of previous experience on the location choice of Chinas OFDI firms from dynamic and sequential perspective. Through the subdivision of previous experience by sources and the distinction of sequential investment into two situations, this paper adopts the conditional Logit model and uses the matched data of Chinas OFDI firms during 2000-2010 to make the empirical specification. The results indicate that on the one hand firms would rely on the previous experience from others to entry the sequential market and this “herd effect” is more evident in the single investment firms; On the other hand, for the multiple investment firms, the effects of experience to the location choice in descending order is as follows: selfexperience has far greater effects than the experience from others, the selfexperience from the same market has greater effects than the selfexperience from the similar markets, and the others experience from the same industry also has greater effect than the experience from different industries.