Table of Content

16 February 2014, Volume 34 Issue 2

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EQUILIBRIUM OF POPULATION MIGRATION AND
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS IN CHINA
——Based on Data from the Sixth Census

JI Shao, ZHU Zhi-Sheng

2014, 34(2):  5-16. 

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Based on the data from the sixth census in 2010, this paper analyzes the migration patterns of population in urban agglomerations, while using the Gini algorithm measures the equilibrium of population and economic in urban agglomerations before and after migration. The study shows the following findings. Firstly, the scale of migration is large in urban agglomerations, population inflows and outflows show a central tendency, especially the inflows concentration. Secondly, the distribution of migration presented the feature of polarization and localization. The urban agglomerations in the east are the main inflow area. The population inflows and outflows are coexisted in the east urban agglomerations where the most of Inflows population come from other provinces. Thirdly, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is still the most important center of inflows population. The Jianghuai and the Ring of Boyanghu urban agglomeration are the center of outflow s population. Fourthly, the equilibrium of population and economic development of the urban agglomerations is reasonable. The difference between the equilibrium in agglomerations is significant but there was no obvious regional differentiation. The population migration significantly improved the equilibrium of population and economic in urban agglomerations.

MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY

JIN Xue-Jun, ZHONG Yi, WANG Yi-Zhong

2014, 34(2):  17-26. 

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This paper adopts policy uncertainty index proposed by Baker and uses FAVAR model to analyze the impact of policy uncertainty on macroeconomic of China. Empirical results show that policy uncertainty has negative impact on GDP, investment, consumption, export and price, decreases real exchange rate and leads to a drop in stock price and real estate price. Besides, this paper finds the mainly mechanism of policy uncertainty effect on macroeconomic is expected channel. This conclusion suggests the government should keep macroeconomic policy as steady and continuous as possible and strengthen guidance of public rational expectation.

DO STATEOWNED ENTERPRISES REALLY LACK INNOVATION ABILITY
——A Comparative Analysis Based on Innovation Performance of
Stateowned Enterprises and Private Enterprises

LI Zheng, LU Yin-Hong

2014, 34(2):  27-38. 

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Stateowned enterprises are not only an important source of independent innovation, but also an important part of national innovation system and innovationdriven development. Nonetheless, many scholars believe that stateowned enterprises lack innovation power and efficiency, and that national innovationdriven development can only rely on private enterprises. This theory based on the nature of ownership is misguided and misleading. The study of this paper shows that the lack of innovation performance is neither universal nor inevitable phenomenon. More importantly, institutional improvements can effectively enhance the power and efficiency of innovation. Further empirical analysis based on listed manufacturing companies also shows that the innovation performance of stateowned enterprises is significantly higher than that of private enterprises, which proves that innovation capacity of SOEs is not lower than other types of enterprises.

THE DUAL UNBALANCE OF
URBANIZATION AND REFORM OF HUKOU SYSTEM

ZOU Yi-Aan

2014, 34(2):  39-49. 

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China’s urbanization has been facing a dual unbalanced problem. That is, the unbalance of development level in different cities and the unbalance of welfare distribution between Hukou and nonHukou citizens in cities. We suggest that as much of urban welfare is independent to Hukou, given the large gap of the development between big cities and small cities, even the nonHukou citizens in big cities can enjoy more welfare than Hukou citizens in small cities. The reform policy, which narrow the welfare gap between Hukou and nonHukou citizens only results in more and more population gathering in big cities. It finally leads to retightening the Hukou regulation, and the reform is ineffective. As a result, the government should convert the policy, which aims to narrow the unbalance of welfare distribution between Hukou and nonHukou citizens, to the one that narrow the unbalance of development level in different cities in the first place.

LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE MODEL OF OPEC’S BEHAVIOR

ZHU Tong

2014, 34(2):  50-58. 

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The theory of OPEC’s behavior is one of the two main themes of petroleum economics. Based on a large number of relevant research literature since the 1970s, this paper reviews the clues of OPECs behavioral theory, the classic models, and compares the methods and conclusions of empirical researches. The author indicates that, although the models described OPECs behavior have been more sophisticated, each model could only explain a part of OPECs behavior in some period, because OPEC and its members use different strategies at different times. OPEC and its members have obvious shortterm impact on oil price. However, oil price mainly reflects the changes in market fundamentals in the long term.

A STUDY ON THE FACTORS AND POLICY OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN
PROMOTING CHINA’S LONGTERM AND BALANCED ECONOMIC GROWTH ——Based on Statistical Analysis of 1 489 Questionnaires

YANG Fei-Hu

2014, 34(2):  59-69. 

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Based on 1 489 questionnaires from seven cities, this article has analyzed problem of public investment in longterm economic growth in China. The results show that the primary factor to restrict and promote Chinas sustained and balanced economic growth is technological progress. In order to promote Chinas sustained and balanced economic growth for a long time, the most important role of public investment is to guide the strategic industry growth, the investment orientation should be focus on “science, education, culture, sports and health” and other public welfare projects, the most suitable ratio of public investment and GDP is about 10%, the most important effect of public investment should be social welfare effect. Finally, some measures about pubic investment to boost the growth and equilibrium of Chinese economy for a long time are proposed.

GOVERNMENT FINANCING CHANNELS ON GENERALIZED
 PREFERENCE GOODS AND SPECIAL PREFERENCE GOODS

YANG Dan-Ni

2014, 34(2):  70-77. 

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The conflict between financial expenditure increase and the growth of goods or services provided by the government for residents becomes more and more standing out. This paper points out the root of all problems is that the government financing channels is irrelevant with the characteristics of goods or services provided by government. The government financing channel should vary on the nature of goods or services. Otherwise, the government will provide goods or services with inefficiencies and inequalities. Based on the benefitreceived principle, the generalized preference goods should be financed by the general tax, and the special preference goods should be financed by fees.

PATHS AND METHODS OF OPERATIONAL RISK
LOSS MEASUREMENT IN COMMERCIAL BANKS

YU Chen, ZHOU Wei

2014, 34(2):  78-84. 

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This paper attempted to propose new research ideas about paths and methods of operational risk loss measurement in commercial banks. The foreseeable losses could be calculated through the process of combing operations to identify risks, and measuring the probability of the occurrence of operational risk loss events, the loss ratio of the product, and the value of all products that the process contained. The methods solve many problems about the current measurement of operational risk loss in commercial banks and have a positive meaning from the perspective of operational risk management practices in commercial bank.

THE MARKET ATTRIBUTES ANALYSIS ON
SHIBOR AS CHINAS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE

WANG Jin-Zhong-1, ZHAO Jie-Qiang-2, WANG Qian-1

2014, 34(2):  85-94. 

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Back on the interest rate liberalization and based on the existing theory and research, this paper uses the monthly data of Shibor from 2007 to now, and tests the effectiveness from the marketability and fundamentality views. In virtue of correlation analysis, Granger causality test and other empirical methods, this paper analyzes quantitatively and qualitatively the market attributes of Shibor as a benchmark interest rate. Empirical results illustrate that Shibor performs well in its marketability, while its fundamentality requires further improvement to be Chinas benchmark interest rate.

ENHANCING EFFECT ON U.SEMPLOYMENT OF MADE IN CHINA
——An Analysis of American Content in China’s Manufacture Export

WANG Xiao-Song-1, ZHOU Jia-Chen-2, DI Guang-Yu-3

2014, 34(2):  95-104. 

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This paper aims at exploring the enhancing effect on U.S. employment of Chinas manufacture export. Utilizing OECDs STAN database, we calculate the intermediate content from the U.S. in Chinas manufacture export to the same country. Empirical results show that American Content in Chinas manufacture got larger as the technological content increased. During 2006 to 2010, American Content of manufacture was 1%, while the content of high-class manufacture was about 16% on average. Based on these results, we calculate the employment effect of American Content in Chinas manufacture was about 17 million jobs. The implication is that trade between China and the U.S. enhances employment of the latter. Appreciation of RMB will bring in negative effect on U.S. employment.

BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND
 STOCK ON COOPERATIVES MANAGEMENT MODEL ——A Case Study of Guangming Village Agricultural Land Cooperatives in Hunan Province

XIA Yu-Lian, ZENG Fu-Sheng

2014, 34(2):  105-112. 

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There are several reasons for the emergence of agricultural land stock cooperatives. Based on the principles of efficiency, this paper firstly constructed the framework of benefit analysis to agricultural land stock cooperatives model. By the case study of Guangming village agricultural land stock cooperatives in Hunan province, this paper analyzed the benefit performance, benefit causes and benefit restriction of agricultural land stock cooperatives. By discussing the mechanism optimization and system arrangement, this paper concluded that as the trend of the rural land management system in new period, the success of farmland shares cooperative depended on certain conditions, which is not suitable for in all areas. It could achieve the maximum efficiency and development sustainability where farmers, cooperatives, government and other parties subject created the conditions for the operation of farmland shares cooperative by their joint efforts.