Table of Content

16 August 2011, Volume 31 Issue 8

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SHORTAGE OF MIGRANT WORKERS: THE LEWIS TURNING POINT OR THE BOTTOM OF EASTERLIN DEMOGRAPHIC SWINGS

ZHAI Zhen-wu, YANG Fan

2011, (8):  5-13. 

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This paper made a new interpretation of the phenomenon of "migrant workers shortage" from a unique perspective of demographic swings.The demographic swings had caused dramatic structural changes of working-age population.On the one hand,working-age population was keeping ageing gradually and the proportion of the younger workers was declining,but the employers preferred the young.This contradiction led to an imbalance of supply and demand of young workers.On the other hand,the number of fresh workers entering into the labor market was declining every year,which destroyed the path of annual turnover of workers.Furthermore,the high education created the first profession division,and its expansion aggravated the decline of the young workers supply.Therefore,the shortage of migrant workers was not a sign of the Lewis turning point which is described as the decreasing migration flows from rural areas to urban due to the vanishing of the surplus labor force in rural areas,but an issue associated with the overall reduction in size of young manual-worker population caused by demographic swings and the expansion of high education.This was supported by Easterlin's argument: the fluctuation of population exerted a great influence on the economic and social development.

AGGREGATION OR DIFFUSION:THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON URBAN SIZE AND URBAN-RURAL INCOME GAP

CHENG Kai-ming

2011, (8):  14-23. 

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Urban size would influence the urban-rural income gap through aggregation effect and diffusion effect.Based on empirical analysis of cross-section data and panel data,this paper showed that the enlargement of urban size would reduce urban-rural income gap.With the expansion of urban size,urban-rural income gap formed a U-shaped curve.Dispersed structure and high economic development level of cities could reduce urban-rural income gap.The impact of urban size on urban-rural income gap was significant on different scales.This paper also provided some suggestions of city development.

THE EFFECT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT'S EXPENDITURE SIZE AND STRUCTURE ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ITS INSTITUTIONAL CAUSE

JIA Jun-xue, NING Jing

2011, (8):  24-32. 

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This paper investigated the effects of local government's expenditure size and structure on income distribution based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS) data.We found that local government's expenditure size and structure had negative impacts on provincial income distribution.Fiscal expenditure decentralization strengthened the overall adverse effects of local government's expenditure size and structure on provincial income distribution,while revenue decentralization weakened the negative impacts of local government's expenditure size on urban income gap and economic expenditure's negative effects on urban-rural income gap,whereas it intensified social expenditure's adverse effects on provincial income distribution.

THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OUTPUT AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN CHINA

SUN Yong-jun

2011, (8):  33-41. 

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In recent years,the coexistence of high growth rate of output and high unemployment rate appeared in China.The simulation results of divisible DSGE model revealed that technological progress promoted the growth rate of output and employment,but the effect of technological progress on output was more than that on employment.While at the same time,the increase of capital brought by technological progress substituted for labor.In the context of continuing increase of labor force,the unbalance effect of technological progress on output and employment resulted in the coexistence of high growth rate and high unemployment rate appeared in China.

THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS TO THE EXISTENCE AND NONLINEARITY OF OKUN'S LAW

CHEN Yu-feng, YU Jian, CHEN Qi-qing

2011, (8):  42-52. 

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Based on the traditional linear Okun's law and smooth transition regression model,this paper established a nonlinear model of Okun's law,and systematically investigated the existence and nonlinearity of Okun's law in China with the international oil price shocks.The empirical results indicated that the Okun's law became invalid and presented nonlinearity in China and the impact of economic expansion and recession to unemployment exhibited an entire different asymmetric effect.Okun's law presented certain level of deviation and it shifted frequently between linearity and nonlinearity characteristics under the influence of external supply shocks.

COMMENTS ON MAIN REVIEWS OF CHINA'S HOUSE PROPERTY TAX——Examples of Shanghai and Chongqing's Reform

GUO Hong-bao

2011, (8):  53-61. 

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This paper summarized the theoretical reviews on China's house property tax and provided three goals of property tax reform as follows: to control the housing prices,to expand government's revenue,and to distribute income fairly.Furthermore a deep analysis was proceed and concluded that all of three goals could be achieved under certain conditions.Without corresponding system reforms,any goals would be not realized.This paper also took examples of Shanghai and Chongqing for an empirical analysis and offered some suggestion from the comparison.

THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND REVELATIONS ON THE FINANCING MECHANISMS OF STRATEGIC EMERGING INDUSTRIES IN U.S., JAPAN AND GERMANY

HU Hai-feng, HU Ji-ya

2011, (8):  62-74. 

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The paper mainly compared and analyzed three types of financing mechanisms in strategic emerging industries,which were a market-dominant type in America,a bank-dominant type in Japan and a universal bank-dominant type in German.Learning form those financing mechanisms,we should build our financing mechanism of strategic emerging industries supported by government policy and bank financing,develop a multi-level capital market,and establish a corresponding supervision system to ensure the flow of funds safe.

EARNINGS MANAGEMENT OF LISTED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND MARKET CONSTRAINTS——Based on Investment Income and Risk Management

ZHAO Sheng-min, ZHAI Guang-yu, ZHANG Yu

2011, (8):  75-85. 

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This paper discussed the correlation between earnings management and market disciplines,and analyzed earnings management methods of commercial banks and market discipline approach.Based on loan loss provisions and investment income,this paper provided the analysis of earnings management by using a fixed effects model,and analyzed stock-based transactions of commercial banks,market discipline of risk by using GMM dynamic panel.The empirical results showed that non-systematic fluctuations in stock market formed market constraints for risk management.China's commercial banks neither increased their capital adequacy ratio for earnings management,nor smoothed their profits through earnings management.They only managed their surplus profits through a loan loss provision.This paper suggested developing market-oriented commercial banks and strengthening market supervision gradually.

A STUDY ON THE TRUST FINANCING MODEL OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES——An Example of Guangdong Province

CHEN Han

2011, (8):  86-95. 

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Combined author's working experience in a trust company with current financing situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Guangdong,this paper built a trust model to solve the financing problem and provide the proposals for the self-management of trust companies,which could allocate efficiently the financial resources of Guangdong province based on the trust platform and shift the financial capital to serve the real economy.This paper offered some strategies for Guangdong to grow up into a strong financial and economic province.

CHINA'S OVERSEAS INTERESTS IN ITS OUTWARD FDI IN POST-CRISIS ERA

LIU Hong, WANG Duan-yong

2011, (8):  96-101. 

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Since 2000,China's outward foreign direct investment(FDI) has experienced a rapid development,which has already become an important part of its overseas interests.This trend has been even more obvious after global financial crisis in 2008.This paper provided an overview of China's outward FDI during 2008 and 2009,and briefly analyzed overseas interests in it through the text interpretation of reports on Outward FDI and Cooperation country(region) Guide(2009 Edition) issued by Ministry of Commerce.The preliminary conclusions included:(1) China's outward FDI developed rapidly,however until now it contributed a little to the national interests and contains high risk;(2) the overseas interests in China' outward FDI occupied a small part while its industrial distribution concentration was quite obvious;(3) China's outward FDI suffered the high loss rate of which a large part related to foreign factors.

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON SUCCESSION IN FAMILY BUSINESS——From the Aspect of Incumbents

WANG Cheng-bin, WU Cheng-lin

2011, (8):  102-110. 

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Intergenerational inheritance would directly influence the growth and competitive ability of a firm.This paper studied family members and incumbents' influence on family business intergenerational inheritance from the aspect of the incubator.The results showed that the opinions of family members were dominant in the decision of inheritance,which proved that China's traditional culture would affect family business intergenerational inheritance deeply,which suggested that we could coordinate the relationship between family members and firms by establishing a family council.This analysis also showed that education background and age of an incumbent would affect arrangement of family business inheritance obviously.If education background of an incumbent was above bachelor degree,his decision would be more prospective in the issue of inheritance time,inheritance object and cultivation of inheritor.An incumbent with a lower education background would restrain the development of family business,which should be improved by promoting quality-oriented education of incumbents.