Table of Content

16 February 2007, Volume 27 Issue 2

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SUPERVISING AND EVALUATING CHINESE ECONOMIC SECURITY:2002—2005

GU Hai-bing, LIU Wei, ZHOU Zhi-gao

2007, (2):  5-11. 

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Security factor shows that,during 2002—2005,Chinese economic security level is getting lower,at the middle and low area.Category indices show that domestic situations(unequal development) and foreign situations(technology control of foreign capital) are the main reasons.

THE WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTABILITY OF BUSINESS CYCLES IN CHINA

CHEN Yan-bin, HAN Xu

2007, (2):  12-18. 

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By using the AR(1) process to describe the consumption stream in China,this paper re-estimates the welfare cost of business cycles and reduced growth.The main findings of this paper is the positive correlation between the welfare cost of business cycle and the AR(1) coefficient and the lower estimated costs compared to the case of il il dl disturbancel.

ON SOURCES ANALYSIS OF CHINESE LIQUIDITY SURPLUS

REN Bi-yun, WANG Yue-feng

2007, (2):  19-25. 

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Rather than difference between deposits and loans,occupying foreign exchange,or increasing gap between M2 and M1,it is the direct source for Chinese liquidity surplus that monetary policy did not react in time to the changing economic situations.To solve the liquidity surplus,we have 3 ways:first,take more contractionary monetary policy and prevent the possibility of inflation;second,take the expansionary fiscal policy and keep the economy stable;and third,speed up the marketization of interest rates and help to build the free-floating system of exchange rate.

EFFECTS OF ENERGY SHOCK ON CHINESE MACRO-ECONOMY

SUN Wen-cun

2007, (2):  31-36. 

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Energy source is one of the very important factors for Chinese economic fluctuation.Under the current macroeconomic policy goals,Chinese energy price goes up by 10%,and this leads to about(0.29%) of inflation rate,(0.35%) up of general price level,0.34% of output gap and accumulatively(0.41%) loss of output.Meantime,(100%) up of world oil price will result in Chinese mild increase of price level and mild decrease of output,both by less than 1%.

STABILITY ANALYSIS OF CHINA BANK SYSTEM BASED ON BSSI INDEX

ZOU Wei

2007, (2):  47-53. 

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With the general opening of Chinese bank industry,effectively resist shocks and maintain stable become very urgent for China bank system.Based on the precedent indices of bank crisis,BSSI can do better than others:supervising the shock-resisting abilities and stabilities,preventing from bank crisis,ensure the competitive ability and effectiveness under financial security.

LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS OF CHINA STOCK MARKETS:BASED ON EXCHANGE DEMAND OF ORGANIZATION INVESTORS

HUANG Feng, YANG Zhao-jun

2007, (2):  54-59. 

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Based on exchange demand of organization investors,survey on 15 Chinese organization investors,and other data,this paper finds that Chinese liquidity level is higher than other major stock markets such as NYSE,and organization investors are satisfied with the Chinese general liquidity level.However,fluctuation rate of Chinese stock markets are high,and have unilateral Granger causal-effect relationship.For organization investors,the first problem is that the liquidity risk is too high and difficult to separate with price risk,rather than the liquidity level is too high or too low.