Table of Content

16 April 2011, Volume 31 Issue 4

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APPRECIATION OF CHINESE YUAN AND CHINA'S POLICIES

LIU Wei, SU Jian

2011, 31(4):  5-12. 

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The appreciation of Chinese Yuan is a problem which China cannot avoid.From an overall perspective,we thought that the appreciation of Yuan would be better for China's economy.But the speed of the appreciation of Yuan should be determined by the ability of Chinese exporting firms to bear the increasing costs,the ability of China to expand domestic demand,the ability of China in adjusting the exchange rate of Yuan,the inflow speed of hot money,and the magnitude of bubbles in China's asset prices.Among all of the determinants,the expansion of domestic demand is the most fundamental one.We proposed two policies to expand domestic demand,e.g.loosening the birth-control policy and proceeding with the large-scale ecological development.

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON CARBON EMISSIONS' DRIVING FACTORS IN LOW-CARBON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT——An Example of Zhejiang Province

YE Xiao-jia, SUN Jing-shui, DONG Li-feng

2011, 31(4):  13-23. 

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This paper estimated carbon emissions from 1995 to 2008 in Zhejiang province based on 12 kinds of energy consumption data in the three main industries and residents' sector.This paper built the decomposition model of carbon emissions' driving factors and decomposed the driving factors into energy intensity,structure adjustment,economic development and population size.In this paper,the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method was used to measure and calculate the factors' contributions to the growth of carbon emissions,variation tendency and interaction mechanism.The conclusions are as follows: ①The carbon emissions present a sustainable ascending trend in Zhejiang.②The positive effect of economic development and population size on carbon emissions is much larger than the negative effect of energy intensity and structure adjustment.③ The level of carbon emission in Zhejiang has stepped across the summit of the carbon emissions intensity,but still at the phase between the summits of carbon emissions intensity and per capita carbon emissions.To shorten the spanning period of the different summits of carbon emissions,to decline the peak value,this paper proposed several policy suggestions on how to accelerate carbon economic development.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF FOUR-DIMENSIONAL EVALUATION SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RESOURCE COMPETITIVENESS, THE MEASUREMENT AND THE COMPARISON

LI Bao-yuan, KUAI Peng-zhou, LI Xiao-ting

2011, 31(4):  24-32. 

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This paper constructed a four-dimensional evaluation system of international human resource competitiveness,involving supporting economic development,education,market disposition and health security.Using the data of 34 countries from 2004 to 2007,the paper measured the levels of human resource competitiveness of the 34 countries during the four years and divided them into three classes,using the method of cluster analysis.Based on these,this paper described the international competitive landscape of human resource and changes during the four years.This analysis would be helpful in estimating China's relative position of human resource competitiveness on international level and predicting its growing trend.

AN ANALYSIS ON THE RELATION BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH:COMMENTS ON CHINESE FEATURES

SUN Wen-kai

2011, 31(4):  33-40. 

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This paper investigated the relation among urbanization,economic growth and structure by using cross-national data.It emphasized China's features and forecasted China's future of urbanization.The world experience showed that the urbanization follows S-shaped curve with economy and China's economy is currently in the fastest urbanization period.Urbanization plays an important role in the transition of economic structure.It boosts domestic consumption and tertiary industry.Compared with the world experience,China has obviously high investment rate,high ratio of secondary industry over GDP and low consumption rate.We found that there is a co-integration among urbanization,per capita GDP and capital stock.Per capita GDP increases 2.25% as urban rate grows up 1%.According to the dynamic relation,we forecasted that the population in urban area would exceed that in rural area in 2012.

THE STUDY TRAJECTORY OF WESTERN SCHOLARS ON BIG COUNTRIES ECONOMY

OUYANG Yao

2011, 31(4):  41-46. 

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Economic thought on big countries of western scholars is an important source of big countries economic theory.Following the consistency between the logic and the history,this paper described the western scholars' thought trajectory,which could be summarized as following: from market size and production scale to the strength of scale economies,from the concepts and patterns of big countries to their economic characteristics,from the rise and fall of big countries and their revival to the rising-up of emerging big countries.Along this line of thought,western scholars had put forth some important ideas.

ASSET PRICE BUBBLES AND MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE——Action in Advance or Action Afterwards

HU Zhao-ping

2011, 31(4):  47-54. 

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There are many reasons led to asset price bubbles.Early research suggested that irrational factors were the main sources of asset bubbles,but recent research suggested that if the financial liberalization process could not meet the economic and financial development conditions,it could also cause asset bubbles.It is controversial whether monetary policies should respond to asset price bubbles.Some scholars advocated that monetary policies should ignore asset prices,while others argued that monetary policies should respond to asset prices.Based on the latter point of views,this paper investigated that the monetary policy action in advance and afterwards when central banks expected that asset price bubbles would come out,and introduced the theory of output configuration as the decision model of central banks.

PRODUCER SERVICES AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH:A STUDY ON INFLUENCE FACTORS AND THEIR VALIDITY BASED ON MODERATORS

MA Long-long

2011, 31(4):  55-63. 

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This paper explored the possible effects of five factors,the industrial base,the level of manufacturing technology,the degree of manufacturing specialization,the degree of urbanization and the industrial structure level,on the relationship between producer services and regional economic growth by a theoretical analysis.Given that time and geological differences may impair the results,Beijing and Xi'an,both modern cities in China although differing in economic levels,were selected to conduct a comparative analysis.Later,a multiple regression test,with the above-mentioned five factors as moderators,was conducted to study the moderating effects.And the data source was from the statistics yearbooks of Beijing and Xi'an.Finally,based on the comparative analysis results of Beijing and Xi'an,the paper proposed some recommendations to enhance the promoting effect of productive services on regional economic growth.

A STUDY ON CORE COMPETENCE AND INNOVATION PATH——From the Perspective of Emerging Economy

LU Xiong-wen, SUN Jin-yun

2011, 31(4):  64-71. 

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Researchers paid little attention to the relationship between core competences and firm innovation in corporate strategy area.This research answered this call from the perspective of emerging markets.We argued that an innovative development path model in emerging market co-evolved.Innovation and imitation were not merely alternative but a gradually continuum.To most growing firms in emerging markets it was costly and risky to promote ground innovation,which was also hardly to shape core competence.Respectively,innovative imitation would enhance the competitive capability of firms in emerging markets both theoretically and practically.

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MANAGERS' INNOVATIVE SPIRIT AND INNOVATION OUTCOMES IN CHINA

ZHU Chun-ling

2011, 31(4):  72-79. 

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It became a main stream direction of industry structure transition to upgrade the productivity efficiency and product properties through technological innovation,after China strode over the Lewisian turning point.Among varied factors which influence innovation inputs and performance,managers' own innovative spirit is the key to firms' innovative performance.This paper empirically investigated the effects of managers' innovative spirits on its innovation performance in a sample of 207 manufacturing and high-technology firms in China.Findings indicated that managers' innovativeness was positively related to its innovation performance while the risk-taking propensity did not promote it.The results also revealed that innovative and risk-taking propensities were complementary to each other in shaping innovative spirits in China.The findings provided references for government policy makers to foster a friendly environment of entrepreneurship.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF "J-CURVE EFFECTS" ON SINO-EU TRADE BASED ON VAR MODEL

GAO Yun-sheng, SHANG Yun-hong, PAN Qun-di

2011, 31(4):  80-84. 

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The euro had played an important role in the world economy as a new global currency and EU was the biggest trade partner of China,meanwhile it had been also an important weighted currency in the RMB exchange rate system,so the floating rate of euro exchange to RMB had a vital impact on the bilateral trade balance.This paper built a VAR model based on the relevant quarterly data during 1999—2008,and used the unit root test and the Johansen test to have a stationary analysis.The results showed that the devaluation of RMB could improve China's trade balance with Europe,but China's trade income with euro became worse in short time.The trade balance became stable after a long time,so the J-curve effect between China and EU had been approved.

ANALYSIS OF THE COOPERATION OF NEW ENERGY INDUSTRY BETWEEN KOREA AND CHINA

Yoon Young-man, GONG Chi, LI Tian-guo

2011, 31(4):  85-94. 

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This paper analyzed the new energy industry cooperation between China and Korea,and forecasted the economic effects of the cooperation.To evaluate the necessity of the cooperation,we used the intra-industry index to build a new index that can represent the relative gains of cooperators from improving energy efficiency.The vector auto regression model(VAR) helped us to find the significant relationships among the energy cooperation index,trade relations,and GDP.Based on the results,we could quantify the economic effects of the new energy industry cooperation between China and Korea.

WILLIAMSON HYPOTHESIS: SPATIAL AGGLOMERATION AND GROWTH OF REGIONAL ECONOMY——An Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Regression Using China's Regional Data

XU Ying-zhi, PENG Huan-huan, LIU Xiu-yan

2011, 31(4):  95-102. 

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Williamson hypothesis suggests that efficiency can be significantly enhanced by spatial agglomeration at the early stage of development.But after reaching a threshold value,the effect of spatial agglomeration on growth is weaker,even adverse.Congestion externalities may favor a more scattered geo-spatial structure.Based on Barro's growth model,this paper used a threshold regression model and 30 provincial data in China from 1978 to 2008 to make an empirical test of Williamson hypothesis and explored the relationship between spatial concentration and economic growth.The results showed that spatial agglomeration had significant non-linear effect on China's economic growth.That is,while not reaching the threshold value,agglomeration had a positive effect on economic growth;once exceeding the threshold value,agglomeration would reduce the rate of economic growth.That is to say,there existed a significant Williamson hypothesis.Meanwhile,the trend of economic growth in China had shown the coexistence of convergence and divergence.Accordingly,this paper presented some corresponding policy recommendations in the final part.

THE EXPANSION OF AGRICULTURAL OPENING-UP:THE STATUS QUO, TRENDS AND SUGGESTIONS

WANG Shuang-zheng

2011, 31(4):  103-112. 

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The paper firstly summed up the basic facts of Chinese agricultural opening-up since the 10th five-year period,and expounded its main effects and problems.After that,this paper analyzed the new faced situations and problems during the 12th five-year period.Combined with the realistic conditions,this paper put forward the overall design,basic principles and suggestions on the expansion of agricultural opening-up.