Abstract: To investigate whether new rural pension program can effectively reduce poverty vulnerability of rural lowincome households under precision poverty alleviation policy，this paper uses datasets from CFPS 2014，2016 and 2018，calculates poverty vulnerability based on poverty line of 2,300 yuan per year and 32 dollars per person per day，and uses twoway fixedeffects model and instrumental variable method to do empirical analysisThe results show that participating in new rural pension program has a significant weakening effect on poverty vulnerability of rural lowincome families in general，but the increase of recipients of new rural pension has aggravated poverty vulnerabilityHeterogeneity analysis according to the stages of receiving insurance finds that participating and the increase in the number of paid participants in new rural pension program have significantly weakened poverty vulnerability of both uninsured and insured householdsWhile receiving new rural pension has no significant impact on poverty vulnerabilityFurther heterogeneity analysis shows that participating in new rural pension program can improve poverty vulnerability of families without unhealthy members，and has a significant effect on alleviating poverty vulnerability of families without savings or loansMechanism test shows that participating in new rural pension program can increase the family's productive fixed assets and reduce intergenerational transfers，thereby weakening the family's poverty vulnerability，while receiving new rural pension increases children's financial support for the elderly and aggravates poverty vulnerability

Key words:  , new rural pension program, precision poverty alleviation policy, rural lowincome households, poverty vulnerability, poverty standards

摘要： 为考察新农保在精准扶贫时期能否降低农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱性，本文利用2014—2018年家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，基于2 300元/年和每人每天32美元两类不同贫困标准衡量的贫困脆弱性指标，采用双向固定效应模型和工具变量法进行实证检验。研究发现，总体而言，缴费参与新农保对农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱性具有显著削弱作用，但领取新农保在一定程度上加剧了农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱程度。根据领保状态的分阶段分析发现，缴费参与新农保和缴费参保人数增加对未领保家庭和领保家庭的贫困脆弱性都具有显著改善作用，但领取新农保和领保人数对贫困脆弱性没有显著影响。异质性分析表明，缴费参与新农保可以改善健康成员家庭的贫困脆弱性，对无储蓄家庭和无借贷家庭的贫困脆弱程度具有显著缓解作用。机制检验表明，缴费参与新农保可以通过提高家庭生产性固定资产和减少代际转移，进而缓解家庭贫困脆弱性程度，而领取新农保则通过增加子女对老人的经济支持而加剧家庭贫困脆弱程度。

关键词: 新农保, 精准扶贫, 农村低收入家庭, 贫困脆弱性, 贫困标准