Abstract: Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has actively adjusted its economic structure to promote the economic transformation from highspeed development to highquality development. As an important part of structural adjustment, the governance of overcapacity is of great significance to promote the orderly and healthy development of related industries. However, scholars are far from reaching a consensus in the necessity and effectiveness of industrial policies. Drawing on China's decapacity policy, this paper analyzes its effect on total factor productivity and profit of manufacturing listed companies from the perspective of the effectiveness of restrictive industrial policy with differenceindifference method. The results show that the impact of decapacity policy on the performance of listed companies presents a Ushaped relationship with different kinds of robustness tests: in a short time, decapacity policy has a negative impact on corporate performance; but in the long run, it is conducive to the improvement of corporate performance. In addition, by using different TFP calculation methods, changing the measurement of core explanatory variables and random grouping operation, the estimated results are still robust. This indicates that the restrictive industrial policy may be an effective policy tool to redress market failure and promote highquality development.

Key words: decapacity policy, manufacturing industry, high quality development, TFP  ,

摘要： 党的十八大以来，中国积极调整经济结构，以推动经济由高速发展向高质量发展转型。而治理产能过剩作为结构调整的重要一环，对于促进相关行业有序健康发展具有重要意义。同时，产业政策的必要性与有效性仍是学术界争论的焦点。本文以中国“去产能”政策为研究对象，从抑制型产业政策的有效性出发，使用双重差分法（DID）分析了其对制造业类上市公司全要素生产率和利润等绩效指标的作用效果。研究发现，“去产能”政策对产能过剩行业的上市企业绩效影响呈现U型关系。短时间内，“去产能”政策会对企业绩效存在负面影响，但从更长时间维度看，则有利于企业绩效水平的提升。另外，本文采用不同的全要素生产率计算方法、更换核心解释变量测度方式以及进行随机分组运算等方法，分析结果依然稳健。本文的研究结果意味着，抑制型产业政策可以成为政府弥补市场失灵、促进产业高质量发展的有效政策工具。

关键词: “去产能”政策, 制造业, 高质量发展, 全要素生产率