Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 4-18.

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THE PATH OF RMB TOWARD A LEADING CURRENCY: A REVIEW OF ITS HUNDRED YEARS OF GROWTH

  

  1. chool of Finance, Renming University of China
  • Online:2021-11-01 Published:2021-10-16

大国货币崛起的中国道路:人民币孕育成长百年历程*

  

  1. 中国人民大学财政金融学院
  • 作者简介:张杰,中国人民大学财政金融学院、中国财政金融政策研究中心,邮政编码:100872,电子信箱:zhangjie@ruc.edu.cn。

Abstract: After more than 40 years of reform and openingup, with the rapid rise of Chinese economy, RMB, as a sovereign currency, is gradually stepping onto the world currency stageYet how to turn it into a worldwide leading currency in parallel with the major ones in the western world remains an issue of widespread public attentionThe paper argues that an objective evaluation of this issue requires an analysis from perspectives of both history and theoryA pure focus on theory tends to confine the Chinese choice to the path taken by American dollar and British poundBut if seen from a historical perspective, the feasibility of that choice will be greatly discountedHistorically, the Chinese currency system was shaped by its unique characteristics of an overlarge scale of economy and a currency made from cheap metal, which indicates that it was designed to serve domestic economy and people's livelihood, in contrast with some of the western currencies which were frequently used as a tool in foreign expansion and the establishment of world hegemonyUndoubtedly, the present RMB system cannot shake the influence of this traditionIn the process of the nearly one hundred years of national crisis and selfimprovement in modern times, the Chinese Communist Party, the creator of this system, has been fully aware of the importance of the independence of currency system and the stabilization of currency valueAnd its main target has always been more to serve domestic economy and people's livelihood than to pursue the internationalization of its currencyAccordingly, this has resulted in the asymmetry between the big scale of its economy and the limited international use of its currencyHow are we to objectively evaluate the asymmetry? Should it be considered as a dilemma or as a characteristic? The conclusion of my paper is that the growth of RMB into a worldwide leading currency is the natural outcome of rather than the premise condition for the rise of Chinese economyHence, we need to properly handle the timing of the internationalization of RMB, especially the rhythm of its international use, so as to explore a path unique  to China in this process

Key words: leading currency, historical perspective, currency circulated in revolutionary bases, RMB, international use of a sovereign currency

摘要: 经历四十余年改革开放,中国经济迅速崛起,作为主权货币的人民币逐步迈向世界货币舞台。基于此,人民币如何走上与欧美主要货币比肩的大国货币道路便引起人们的广泛关注。本文试图就此谈些看法。本文认为,若要客观准确地分析和评判人民币迈向大国货币之路,必须着眼于历史逻辑与理论逻辑的统一视角。仅从理论逻辑看,英镑美元道路似乎是人民币迈向大国货币的必然选择,但若着眼于历史逻辑,此种选择的合理性则会大打折扣。历史地看,中国货币制度长期由超大规模经济与低值货币本位加以塑造而呈现出十分独特的格局,由此决定其具有更多服务于国内经济民生的特质,这与一些欧美国家货币动辄充当对外扩张与建立世界霸权的工具形成鲜明对照。人民币制度无疑受到中国货币传统的影响,特别是经历近代以降百余年来的民族危亡与自强图存,作为该制度的肇建者,中国共产党人深知币制独立与币值稳定之重要,因此自始至终以服务国内经济民生为要而缓图国际使用,结果出现经济规模与主权货币国际化的不对称格局。最终,问题就归结为如何客观认识这种不对称格局,也就是说,对于人民币成长为大国货币而言,这种格局是“悖论”还是“特色”?本文的结论是:人民币成为大国货币是中国经济崛起的结果而非前提,因此须在基本条件上合理安排迈向大国货币的次序,特别是要审慎把握国际使用的节奏,走出大国货币成长的中国道路。

关键词: 大国货币, 历史视角, 革命根据地货币, 人民币, 主权货币的国际使用