Abstract:  As an important social security policy, the new rural social pension insurance still has no unified evaluation conclusion. Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2016, this paper uses regression discontinuity design method to assess the policy effect of the new rural social pension insurance with the indicators of happiness for the elderly. The study measures the sense of happiness from two dimensions: life satisfaction and confidence in the future life. This paper finds that the impact of pension on life satisfaction is not significant, but it improves their confidence of the future life. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that happiness of the elderly in the eastern regions and in the middle and high income groups has been significantly improved after they receive the pension, but the crowdingout effect has a greater impact in reality. Finally, as a social support, the new rural social pension insurance system has a substitution effect with the traditional concept of “intrafamily transfer”.

Key words: elderly people with rural household registration, new rural social pension insurance, pension, life satisfaction, confidence in the future life, regression discontinuity design

摘要： 作为一项重要的社会保障政策，新农保养老金的效果到底如何，目前学术界还没有统一的评估结论。本文基于2016年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，使用断点回归设计的方法，利用老年人幸福感指标对新型农村社会养老保险的政策效果进行了评估。本文从老年人对生活的满意度和自信心两个维度来衡量幸福感，发现领取养老金对其生活满意度的影响尚不显著，但提升了其对未来生活的信心。异质性分析发现东部地区和中高收入地位的老年人在领取新农保养老金后生活幸福感提升较为显著，但现实中挤出效应的影响更大。最后，作为社会支持的新农保与传统的“养儿防老”观念存在一定的替代效应。

关键词: 农业户口老年人, 新型农村社会养老保险, 养老金, 生活满意度, 对未来生活的信心, 断点回归