Abstract: OnJune24,2016,theresultsoftheBrexitreferendumwereannounced.BritishPrimeMinisterCamerondeclaredtheBrexitcamptowin.
Assoonasthenewscameout,notonlydidthepoundexchangerateplummet,
buttheexchangeratesofmostnon-USdollarcurrenciesalsofellsignificantly.The
foreignexchangemarketisthemostliquidfinancialmarketwiththelargesttradingvolume,anditishighlysensitivetomajorevents.
ThispapersystematicallysortsoutthebeginningandtheendofBrexitaswell
asthekeyeventsafterthestartoftheBrexitprocess.Thispaperuseseventanalysistobuildamodelthat
analyzesthetrendoftheexchangerateofmajorcurrencies.ItusesthedataoftheEUR,GBP,JPYand
RMBexchangeratesastheresearchobjectstoexplorepoliticaleventsindepth.Theresultsofthestudy
showthattheBritishpoundandtheeurohavealwaysbeensignificantlyaffectedbytheBrexitevent,and
theexchangeratesarepositivelycorrelatedwiththeriskofno-dealBrexit.Thatis,whentheriskofnodealBrexitrises,
thecurrencyvaluewillgodown,andwhentheriskofno-dealBrexitwillbeeliminated,
thecurrencyvaluewillgoup.Comparedwiththeeuro,thepoundismorestronglyaffected.Theexchange
ratesofJapaneseYenandChineseYuanwereonlysignificantlyaffectedbytheBrexitreferendumevent,
andwerelessaffectedbythesubsequentBrexitprocess.Thisarticleexploresthedynamicunderstanding
andgraspoftheinternallawsanddifferencesoftheexchangeratesfluctuationsofmajorcurrencies.Sothat
ourcountrycanbetterrespondtotheimpactoftheblackswaneventandmanagetheexpectationsofRMB
exchangerate.

Key words: rexit, majorcurrencies, exchangeratefluctuations, eventanalysis

摘要： 2016年6月24日,英国脱欧公投公布结果,时任英国首相卡梅伦宣告脱欧阵营获胜。消息一出不仅英镑汇率大跌,大多数非美元货币汇率也明显走低。外汇市场是流动性最强、交易量最大的金融市场,对重大事件高度敏感。本文系统梳理英国脱欧始末和开启脱欧进程后的关键事件,运用事件分析法构建分析主要货币汇率变化趋势的模型,以英镑、欧元、日元、人民币汇率数据为研究对象,深入探究政治事件影响汇率的渠道和程度。研究结果表明,英镑与欧元始终受到英国脱欧事件的显著影响,与无协议脱欧风险正相关,即在无协议脱欧风险上升时币值走低,无协议脱欧风险消除时币值走高。相比于欧元,英镑受到的影响更强烈。日元和人民币的汇率仅在英国脱欧公投事件中受到显著影响,较少受后续脱欧进程的影响。本文的研究有利
于动态了解和把握主要货币汇率波动的内在规律和差异性,以便我国更好地应对黑天鹅事件冲击,做好人民币汇率预期管理。

关键词: 英国脱欧, 主要货币, 汇率波动, 事件分析法